The risk of a large earthquake in the Bay Area has just been recalculated, and the odds have gone up, according to a recalibrated prediction from the U.S. Geological Survey.
New federal numbers put the odds of a magnitude 6.7 quake or stronger in the Bay Area during the next 30 years at 74% — up from 72% in 2014 at the time of the previous prediction. These updated predictions were first reported by the San Francisco Chronicle, which requested updated data from the USGS.
“It’s reinforcing what we already know,” United States Geological Survey geophysicist Kevin Milner said. “That we have to be prepared for a major earthquake. It is going to happen in most of our lifetimes.”
Milner co-authored the first study and conducted the new one as well. He said the more time that passes without a major quake, the higher the probability of having one.
The Hayward-Rodgers Creek Fault System, which stretches from San Jose to the San Pablo Bay, still has the highest probability of the Bay Area faults of producing a magnitude 6.7 or stronger earthquake at 34%.
But the biggest increase is on the San Andreas Fault, which the USGS placed at 25.5%, which is up 3.6% from 2014. The San Andreas Fault stretches from Southern California through the Bay Area and north toward Eureka. It also produced the devastating 1906 earthquake, as well as the Loma Prieta quake in 1989.
As the earthquake risk rises, so does the potential for damage — especially to critical infrastructure.
Victor Zayas, president of Earthquake Protection Systems, said while building standards have made major advances, more protections are needed.
“If we build any buildings, especially any new hospitals, we should be building them to not be damaged by earthquakes, not just not collapse,” Zayas said.
USGS is working on developing new models to better understand earthquakes and their risks.
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