At UFC 331, oddsmakers have already begun shaping the next chapter in two of the UFC’s most competitive divisions, making Arman Tsarukyan a commanding favorite to face Justin Gaethje for the lightweight title and Manel Kape a narrow favorite in a potential flyweight title clash with Joshua Van. BetOnline, shortly after the UFC 331 Los Angeles event, reflects how quickly the betting market has reacted to the night’s results. In the main event, Van delivered what many viewed as the most masterclass performance of his career, outscoring former champion Alexandre Pantoja over five rounds to retain the flyweight belt. Yet despite that dominant showing, early numbers suggest the 24-year-old American may lose his belt against Kape.
Early flyweight title odds
For a hypothetical Van vs. Kape title fight, BetOnline opened
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Manel Kape: -160
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Joshua Van: +140
Those numbers imply roughly a 61–62% implied probability for Kape to win, with Van around 38–39%. However, the market has already moved, with a wave of early bets on Van compressing the line toward near pick’em territory, emphasizing that many bettors see the champion’s stock rising rather than falling after UFC 331.
Manel Kape, a former RIZIN Fighting Federation standout who has steadily climbed the UFC flyweight ranks, enters the conversation on the back of a string of high-profile wins and finishes against ranked opposition.
Arman Tsarukyan: A Big Favorite Over Gaethje
In UFC 331’s co-main event, Arman Tsarukyan finished a statement first-round knockout of Mauricio Ruffy, upholding himself as the No. 1 contender at lightweight. With Justin Gaethje having recently captured the lightweight title from Ilia Topuria, the reasonable next step for the division appears to be a Tsarukyan-Gaethje title fight, and oddsmakers are treating the Armenian as the clear favorite.
Early odds for a potential Tsarukyan vs. Gaethje bout:
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Arman Tsarukyan: -450
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Justin Gaethje: +350
This suggests an implied win probability of roughly 82% for Tsarukyan and about 22% for Gaethje, marking him as one of the stronger favorites in recent UFC title fight markets.
Nothing has been officially signed for either Tsarukyan vs. Gaethje or Kape vs. Van. But the story is straightforward: Tsarukyan is being treated as an ideal to dethrone Gaethje, while Van’s next title defense against Kape is projected as a near fifty-fifty shot that could easily go either way.
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