The 2026 ATP Shanghai tournament is underway in China. This is a 1,000-point tournament and the heart of the fall Asian swing. It’s the last big tournament of the year in Asia before the ATP Tour heads back to Europe for the home stretch of indoor tournaments which precedes the season-ending ATP Finals in Turin. We have seen Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic win the 500-point tournaments in Tokyo and Beijing, immediately before Shanghai. Will either of them be fresh enough to make a run at a 1,000-point title? This is yet another 2026 ATP event in which the wider field has a tremendous opportunity make a big points gain. We have seen so many wide-open tournaments on the ATP Tour this year, due to Alcaraz being out for months with an injury. Now we have the news that Jannik Sinner is out for the remainder of the year with a bothersome knee injury he can’t seem to shake. Which players will take advantage of a fluid situation in men’s tennis? ATP Shanghai is a fascinating tournament to watch for that reason. LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
ATP Shanghai
Bernard Tomic – Matteo Arnaldi: 1:30 EST
H2H: 0-0
This ATP Shanghai match involves two players with very different hardcourt profiles. Bernard Tomic has played 46 hardcourt matches this year, while Matteo Arnaldi has played only 12. Tomic plays a ton of challengers and smaller tournaments. Arnaldi stays on the main ATP Tour. Tomic has 27 wins on hardcourts this year, Arnaldi only 3. What everyone has to understand is that Tomic’s volume of matches and wins comes from playing smaller tournaments. He is ranked nearly 150 spots lower than Arnaldi, so the raw win-loss records aren’t reflected by the actual rankings.
Best Bet to Make
Welcome to our best bet section. You’re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.
Parlay/hedge options: Tomic +1.5 sets at 1.68 at @unibet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 4 – You should not bet more than half a unit on this match.
This ATP Shanghai match has a lot of conflicting information. The win-loss stats and the rankings are two very different things. We do think Arnaldi is a better player than Tomic despite a 3-9 hardcourt record in 2026. Arnaldi plus a small game spread is a perfectly reasonable bet to make.
That being said, betting on Arnaldi -2.5 games is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: Arnaldi -2.5 games at 1.79 at @betfair
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo – Valentin Royer: 1:30 EST
H2H: 0-0
This ATP Shanghai match pits Adolfo Daniel Vallejo against Valentin Royer. Vallejo is 10-7 on hardcourts this year. Royer is 9-13. Vallejo is 4-1 in his last five matches, with wins in that stretch against Rafael Jodar and Matteo Berrettini. Royer is 2-3 with no high-level wins in that group of five matches.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay/hedge options: Royer +2.5 games at 1.72 at @unibet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 5 – you could bet three-fifths of a unit on this match.
This ATP Shanghai match isn’t a lock, but the data clearly points to Vallejo, who is ranked 53 spots higher and is in better current form. Take Vallejo moneyline and leave it at that.
That being said, betting on Vallejo moneyline is the best bet you can make
Value bet/ the best odds: Vallejo moneyline at 1.80 @betfair
Mariano Navone – Pablo Carreno-Busta: 1:30 EST
H2H: 1-0
This ATP Shanghai match presents two players with nearly identical 2026 hardcourt records. Mariano Navone is 11-10, while Pablo Carreno-Busta is 10-10. Both men are 2-3 in their last five matches.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay/hedge options: Carreno-Busta +3 games at 1.61 at @1xbet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 4 – you could bet half a unit on this match.
This ATP Shanghai match doesn’t offer clear-cut data which points to a Carreno-Busta win. Navone has better wins in recent weeks, such as Novak Djokovic at the US Open, and offers more overall upside as a tennis player right now. Take Navone moneyline.
That being said, betting on Navone moneyline is the best bet you can make
Value bet/ the best odds: Navone moneyline at 1.73 @BetVictor
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-Imagn Images
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