US Treasury yields remained largely unchanged on Monday as investors waited for fresh economic data, especially inflation figures expected later this week. The bond market remained steady after stronger-than-expected US jobs data pushed Treasury yields higher during Friday’s trading session.
10-year and 30-year bond yields
The 10-year US Treasury yield was unchanged at 4.855%. The 10-year Treasury yield is closely watched by investors because it acts as a major benchmark for borrowing costs in the US. It influences interest rates on mortgages, car loans and credit card debt, CNBC reported.
The 30-year US Treasury yield also remained steady at 5.257%. This yield is closely watched because it can respond to major global and geopolitical developments, including tensions and conflicts that affect investor confidence.
The 2-year US Treasury yield was also largely unchanged at 4.52%. Unlike the 10-year and 30-year yields, the 2-year Treasury yield is more closely linked to expectations about the Federal Reserve’s short-term interest rate decisions.
Other US Treasury yields showed small movements during Monday’s trading session. According to CNBC market data:
- The 1-month Treasury yield stood at 3.959%, down or up? It rose by 0.016 percentage points.
- The 3-month Treasury yield increased by 0.021 percentage points to 4.126%.
- The 6-month Treasury yield rose by 0.023 percentage points to 4.282%.
- The 1-year Treasury yield increased by 0.019 percentage points to 4.343%.
- The 2-year Treasury yield stood at 4.52%, down 0.002 percentage points.
- The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.855%, down 0.004 percentage points.
- The 30-year Treasury yield stood at 5.257%, down 0.003 percentage points.
October CPI and core CPI forecast
Investors are now waiting for important US inflation data expected on Tuesday. The figures could offer more information about the country’s economic condition and help investors understand whether inflation is rising or cooling. The data could also influence expectations about the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions.
October’s annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is expected to increase to 3.9%. This would be higher than the 3.7% recorded in September, according to consensus forecasts cited by Trading Economics, CNBC reported.
Core CPI inflation is also expected to increase in October. Core CPI does not include food and energy prices because these costs can change sharply. Forecasts suggest that annual core CPI could rise to 2.8% in October, compared with 2.6% in September, according to Trading Economics.
Investors are also waiting for the latest US Producer Price Index (PPI) report. The report is expected later this week. PPI measures changes in prices received by producers for their goods and services. It is often watched as an early indicator of possible changes in consumer inflation.
October payrolls rise by 165,000
The latest US jobs report showed stronger growth than expected, which pushed Treasury yields higher on Friday. The US economy added 165,000 jobs in October, much higher than the 59,000 jobs economists had expected, according to CNBC.
The US unemployment rate also fell to 4.1%. This showed that the job market remained strong. After seeing the strong jobs data, investors pushed Treasury yields higher on Friday as they looked at the US economy and possible changes in interest rates.
WTI crude falls after Trump’s Iran remarks
Meanwhile, oil prices moved lower during early Monday trading. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures for December delivery fell 1.2% to $89.70 per barrel, according to CNBC market data.
The decline in oil prices came after US President Donald Trump said fresh attacks on Iran were highly unlikely. Trump made the comments as discussions aimed at resolving the Middle East conflict continued. His remarks reduced some concerns about the possibility of further military action and its impact on oil supplies, CNBC reported.
Investors are now watching inflation, employment and geopolitical developments for clues about the direction of the US bond market. Tuesday’s CPI report and the PPI data expected later this week could influence expectations about inflation and future Federal Reserve policy, while developments in the Middle East could continue to affect oil prices and market sentiment.
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