In “The Art of the Deal,” the 1987 bestseller published under Donald Trump’s name, maximizing leverage was touted as a top negotiating tool.
Today, Iran looks to be operating from its own version of the same manual amid on-again, off-again negotiations with the Trump administration, aimed at ending a nearly eight-week war.
President Trump appears eager to end the war and turn his attention to domestic matters, with his job approval sinking and fall midterm elections fast approaching. United Airlines’ announcement on Wednesday that it will raise summer air fares as much as 20%, amid surging fuel prices, was only the latest reminder that the war is hitting Americans’ pocketbooks.
Why We Wrote This
President Donald Trump’s desire to end the war quickly and reach a deal he can sell as a win has given Tehran leverage. Amid an impasse over dueling blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, efforts to return to the negotiating table remained on hold.
But the president also needs to show that he can get a better deal restricting Iran’s nuclear ambitions than the Obama administration did in 2015, when it signed a multi-nation accord with Iran known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA. Mr. Trump withdrew from that pact during his first term, harshly criticizing it as “horrible” and “one-sided.”
Both elements – Mr. Trump’s need to end the war and reach a deal he can sell as a win – give the Iranians leverage. Two weeks ago, the president claimed on social media that Iran had “no cards” other than “short term extortion” in its use of waterways.
Now, despite undergoing heavy military losses, Iran is still fighting back against the mightiest military in the world. And its leverage is clear: its ability, even with a depleted military, to disrupt traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, the vital Mideast commercial waterway. On Wednesday, Iran said it seized two container ships in the strait. It also accused the U.S. of breaching the ceasefire that Mr. Trump had extended on Tuesday with a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports intended to increase economic pressure.
Amid the impasse over dueling blockades of Hormuz, efforts to return to the negotiating table remained in limbo.
Vice President JD Vance was set to return to Islamabad, Pakistan, on Tuesday for a second round of talks with Iran when the trip was abruptly postponed.
The few comments from Iranian officials have highlighted a deepening distrust over Mr. Trump’s intentions, alleging that the American naval blockade showed Washington was not serious about ending the war. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi called the port blockade “an act of war.”
“Trump’s ceasefire extension means nothing,” said Mahdi Mohammadi, an adviser to Iranian Parliament speaker and lead negotiator Mohammad Qalibaf, in a post on X. “The losing side can’t set the terms. Continuing the blockade is no different from bombing and must be responded to militarily. At the same time, Trump’s ceasefire extension certainly means buying time for a surprise strike,” Mr. Mohammadi added. “It is time for Iran to take the initiative.”
Despite the tough talk, Iran has clear incentives for wanting to end the war. Its military has suffered significant damage, and its economy has been seriously disrupted.
On Wednesday, the Iranian president’s office refuted claims by Mr. Trump that Iranian leadership was “fractured” while leaving the door open to a possible resumption of talks.
The Iranian president himself sent mixed signals on social media.
Majid Asgaripour/WANA/Reuters
“The Islamic Republic of Iran has welcomed dialogue and agreement and continues to do so,” President Masoud Pezeshkian wrote on X. “Breach of commitments, blockade and threats are main obstacles to genuine negotiations. World sees your endless hypocritical rhetoric and contradiction between claims and actions.”
Mr. Trump, for his part, sounded an encouraging note on Wednesday when he said on Truth Social that eight Iranian women were no longer going to be executed, saying that it was at his request. Iran denies the women were at risk of execution.
Speaking to reporters Wednesday, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt spoke of “a lot of internal division” within the Iranian leadership, suggesting that was hindering the ability to resume negotiations.
“This is a battle between the pragmatists and the hardliners in Iran right now, and the president wants a unified response,” she said.
For now, as efforts to get back to the negotiating table flounder, some analysts suggest that the deal currently under discussion may wind up being no better than the deal reached under President Barack Obama a decade ago.
“The two biggest criticisms of the JCPOA were sunsets and financial relief that Iran could spend on terrorism,” writes James Acton, co-director of the Carnegie Nuclear Policy Program, on X, referring to expiration dates on Iranian weapons programs. “The deal under discussion has both. That’s not a necessary criticism of diplomacy; it’s a criticism of those who criticized the JCPOA and will support any Trump deal.”
Special correspondent Taylor Luck contributed to this article from Amman, Jordan.