The Florida Legislature is convening Tuesday to review a new congressional map proposed by Gov. Ron DeSantis in an effort to net Republicans up to four new seats in the latest tit-for-tat in the redistricting wars ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
Florida is currently represented by 20 Republicans and seven Democrats, with one seat vacant after Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick resigned last week. DeSantis’ proposed map aims to eliminate or shrink Democratic-leaning districts in Tampa, Orlando and parts of the state’s southeast coast.
Should this map pass, Democratic Representatives Jared Moskowitz, Lois Frankel, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, Kathy Castor and Darren Soto are all likely to run in new districts, some of which would have shifted to be more favorable for Republicans.
“The representation for Florida Democrats will clearly be diminished within the state — at least that’s the intention” said University of Florida political science professor Michael McDonald. “Already it’s diminished below what a fair map would be for the state of Florida.”
Florida is likely the last state to redraw its congressional map for the 2026 midterm elections after President Trump kicked off the mid-decade redistricting scramble in Texas last year to net more seats for the GOP.
If the Florida Legislature approves the new map and it isn’t successfully challenged in court, the scorecard in the redistricting wars could tip toward Republicans — although no seats are guaranteed for either party.
McDonald, who has served as a consultant to commissions and legislatures throughout the country on redistricting, noted that he did not believe all four of these districts will be won by Republicans.
“Most generously, I would say maybe three districts because there’s one that’s highly competitive, if not Democratic — still Democratic-leaning on some measures,” McDonald said.
Republicans have a majority in the Florida Legislature, and the State House Speaker Daniel Perez said at the start of the session that he hopes to bring the proposed map for a vote on Wednesday. But the new map faces significant legal hurdles since the state has a law, the “Fair Districts” amendment, that bans partisan gerrymandering. However, DeSantis has appointed six of the seven current justices on Florida’s Supreme Court, making any successful challenges difficult for Democrats.
DeSantis gave the map to Fox first, which included color-coded districts representing their expected political lean.
DeSantis told Fox that this mid-decade redraw is needed because of an undercount of Florida from the 2020 census. DeSantis and Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier cited that as the reason for beginning their calls last August for a mid-decade redraw.
In a letter sent by DeSantis’ general counsel David Axelman to legislative leaders on Monday, he criticized the 2010 Fair Districts Amendments race-based requirements and used that as a reason for new, “race-neutral terms districts” in southeast Florida. Axelman also pointed to population growth in Tampa, Orlando and north of Palm Beach County.
“While still based on 2020 census data, the proposed map nevertheless attempts to account for these dramatic population changes by reconfiguring districts around the areas of high growth,” Axelman wrote.
Democratic Rep. Soto’s district in central Florida, a majority Hispanic district, is currently protected under Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act, although the Supreme Court has a pending decision that could potentially strike down that provision.
House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries on Monday criticized the new map, specifically pointing to the Fair Districts Amendment and the changes to Soto’s district.
Jeffries said SeSantis is “going to try to bully the legislature to enact a map that clearly violates the Florida State Constitution, and by the way, because it goes after communities of color in South Florida and in Central Florida also violates the 14th Amendment to the United States Constitution.”
Getting this map passed quickly through the legislature in Tallahassee during this special session and then surviving legal challenges is imperative for Republicans, since ballots get mailed out to overseas and uniformed Florida voters as soon as July 4 for the Aug. 18 primary.
The special session in Tallahassee runs through Friday, May 1.