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Welcome to another primary day! Steve Kornacki lays out everything you need to know before polls close in Indiana this evening, where the focus is more local than usual. Plus, Henry J. Gomez explores how Iowa, even as it’s trended right in recent cycles, has emerged as a key midterm battleground.
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— Adam Wollner
What to watch for in Indiana tonight
Analysis by Steve Kornacki
A group of Indiana Republican lawmakers who have been targeted for defeat by President Donald Trump will learn their fates tonight. It’s the first of several high-profile tests of Trump’s intraparty clout on this month’s calendar.
At issue in Indiana is Trump’s failed effort to compel GOP state senators to back a mid-decade congressional redistricting plan that could have netted the party two new seats. Seven of the Republican state senators who helped scuttle the plan are facing well-funded challenges from Trump-backed opponents.
1st District
Incumbent: Dan Dernulc
Trump-backed challenger: Trevor De Vries
This is a swing district in the Chicago suburbs of northwest Indiana. Dernulc likely calculated that supporting an aggressive partisan gerrymander would stir a backlash in a district that Trump only carried by single digits in 2024.
11th District
Incumbent: Linda Rogers
Trump-backed challenger: Brian Schmutzler
The district includes portions of St. Joseph and Elkhart counties, which are very different places politically. The St. Joseph’s share is comprised of South Bend’s northern suburbs and is politically competitive; Trump won the area by 3 points in 2024. The Elkhart portion, meanwhile, is Trump country; he won it by 35 points over Kamala Harris. In a typical GOP primary, each county makes up about half of the vote. But notably, Indiana doesn’t have party registration, meaning that anyone — including Democrats — can vote in these races. And there are a lot of Democrats in the St. Joseph part of this district. Will they turn out for Rogers in an effort to stick it to Trump?
19th District
Incumbent: Travis Holdman
Trump-backed challenger: Blake Feichter
The district takes in a slice of Fort Wayne and its suburbs, but is mainly made up of swaths of small-town and rural Indiana, including Adams County, which has a large Amish population. Trump’s support runs deep here, as he won this district by nearly 40 points in 2024. But Holdman is no ordinary incumbent — he’s a member of the state Senate GOP leadership and has been in office for nearly 20 years.
21st District
Incumbent: Jim Buck
Trump-backed challenger: Tracey Powell
This is a district with three distinct parts. Howard County, home of the blue-collar city of Kokomo, makes up about a third of it. Rural and deeply pro-Trump Tipton County is about 15% of it. And the fast-growing, professional-class suburb of Westfield in Hamilton County makes up most of the other half — this is likely where Buck will need to run up the score to survive. Buck, who is 80 years old and had considered retirement before committing to run again, has the public backing of Trump’s estranged former vice president, Mike Pence.
23rd District
Incumbent: Spencer Deery
Trump-backed challenger: Paula Copenhaver
These two ran in a crowded primary for this seat in 2022, with Deery prevailing. Much of the district is rural and heavily backed Trump in 2024, although a quarter of the vote should come from Tippecanoe County, home of Purdue University and a Trump-hostile electorate. Deery previously worked as an aide to Purdue’s former president, Mitch Daniels, who’s also Indiana’s former governor.
38th District
Incumbent: Greg Goode
Trump-backed challenger: Brenda Wilson
Near the Illinois border, the district is mostly comprised of Vigo County, the home of Indiana State University, and Clay County to its east. Trump won the district by nearly 30 points in 2024, but Goode could be helped by some ballot confusion: While Brenda Wilson is his main opponent and is running with Trump’s backing, there is a second Wilson — Alexandra Wilson — in the race. Attempts by pro-Trump forces to encourage her to drop out of the race and then boot her from the ballot failed.
41st District
Incumbent: Greg Walker
Trump-backed challenger: Michelle Davis
Walker had announced his retirement before the redistricting war erupted. After voting against the redrawn map proposal and earning the White House’s ire, he reversed course and opted to run again. In the meantime, though, Davis, a state representative, had already jumped in the race, eventually gaining Trump’s backing. Her base is in Johnson County, which makes up just less than half of the district. Walker’s is in Bartholomew County, home of Columbus — and Mike Pence.
Tune in to the Kornacki Cam when the first polls close in Indiana at 6 p.m. ET to watch Steve break down the results.
🗳️What else to watch for: Outside of Indiana, Ohio is holding primaries that will set key Senate, House and gubernatorial matchups for the fall. And in a special election in Michigan, Democrats are aiming to maintain their narrow majority in the state Senate. Read more →
Republicans fret over Iowa as tough midterm races develop
By Henry J. Gomez
DES MOINES, Iowa — Vice President JD Vance is landing here today in an effort to boost the re-election campaign of Rep. Zach Nunn — the latest development that underscores Republicans’ midterm jitters in a state that has moved to the right in recent years.
In Iowa’s race for governor, the GOP is dealing with a jumbled June 2 primary field while the presumptive Democratic nominee, State Auditor Rob Sand, coasts without opposition.
And in the battle for an open Senate seat, the main Republican-aligned Senate super PAC in Washington is preparing to pump nearly $30 million worth of advertising into a state that hasn’t elected a Democrat to the chamber in 18 years.
Vance’s appearance with Nunn, meanwhile, is connected to the GOP’s scramble to keep control of the House, where the party has a slim majority heading into this fall’s elections. Nunn’s is one of at least two Republican-held seats in Iowa that could flip to Democrats this fall.
“Iowa is in the crosshairs again this year,” Iowa Republican Party chair Jeff Kaufmann said in an interview. “A wide-open Senate seat, potentially three — right now it looks like two, but potentially three — competitive congressional seats. Majorities in the Senate and the House pass through Iowa. And we’ve got an open governor’s race.”
“I suspect we’re going to be seeing a lot of national leaders trekking through the Hawkeye State,” Kaufmann added. “And the welcome mat is open.”
Democrats have thrown out the mat, as well. Sen. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich., a potential presidential candidate in 2028, visited last month to campaign with Nunn’s challenger, state Sen. Sarah Trone Garriott.
“There’s a lot more in play here than Washington thinks,” Slotkin said then in an interview. “Eight years ago this was a swing state, and I think a lot of people have written it off. And I think that’s ill-advised.”
🗞️ Today’s other top stories
- ➡️ Iran war: The ceasefire in the Middle East was in peril after the U.S. and Iran traded fire and threats over Trump’s new mission to force open the Strait of Hormuz. Read more →
- 🕺 Ballroom blitz: The 90,000 square-foot White House ballroom that Trump has repeatedly said would cost the public nothing may ultimately leave taxpayers on the hook for $1 billion, due to new security enhancements that are tied to the project. Read more →
- 🗳️ Ballot battles: Fulton County, Georgia, is attempting to squash a subpoena from the Justice Department seeking the names and contact information of 2020 election workers. Read more →
- ⚖️ SCOTUS watch: The Supreme Court allowed its decision striking down Louisiana’s congressional map to go into effect immediately, granting a request from Republicans in the state as they aim to draw new district lines for this year’s election. Read more →
- 👀 Exclusive: Homeland Security immigration leaders disagreed so vehemently over how to accomplish Trump’s goal of deporting 1 million people during his first year back in office that during a meeting over the issue, handlers had to “clear the room” to defuse tensions, two DHS officials familiar with the meeting told NBC News. Read more →
That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.
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