Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro and state Treasurer Stacy Garrity will face off this fall in a ticket-topping race for governor in the nation’s largest swing state.
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The matchup being set is no surprise, as both cleared the fields in their primary contests. But the general election is notable — and the impact could reverberate beyond Pennsylvania in future elections.
Shapiro, a Democrat who enjoys high approval ratings in the battleground state, enters the contest as a heavy favorite looking to cement his reputation as Pennsylvania’s dominant political figure.
But those dynamics could shift in the months leading up to the November election, and Garrity and Republicans are eager to stop Shapiro — or at least dent his reputation — before he tries to go national.
A potential 2028 presidential candidate, Shapiro is eager to lead the Democratic ticket to big results this year. He has zoomed in on four swing House races in the state that will be set after Tuesday, making endorsements in all four of those Democratic primaries. The governor is looking to play a major role in flipping those seats from Republican control — and potentially swinging the House majority for Democrats nationally.
Shapiro is also hoping to help flip a handful of contested state Senate seats this fall that could give Democrats unified control of state government in Harrisburg, which would give the governor the ability to pass a more ambitious legislative agenda next year.
Shapiro won his 2022 election over Republican state Sen. Doug Mastriano by about 15 points and carried a number of traditionally Republican counties in the state.
Republicans expect Garrity, who has been elected statewide in her own right before, to be a significantly stronger nominee than the flawed Mastriano was four years ago.
There has been little spending in the race so far — less than a million dollars from each campaign on ads, according to AdImpact. But that’s expected to change dramatically in Pennsylvania, which regularly sees tens of millions of dollars in campaign advertising.