Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, US, November 2, 2026.
Brendan Mcdermid | Reuters
Stock futures dropped as traders speculated that Democrats were headed for majority control of Congress and some key gubernatorial wins in the 2026 U.S. midterm elections.
Futures tied to the S&P 500 traded 0.9% lower, while Nasdaq-100 futures shed 1.8%. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were down 313 points, or 0.6%.
Kalshi odds for Democratic Senate control increased to above 90%, showing traders were increasingly betting on a big night for Democrats. Odds for Democratic control of the House, which was largely expected, jumped to 99% for Democrats.
Texas Democratic governor candidate Gina Hinojosa, who has pledged a moratorium on data centers in the key tech hub, is leading over Republican incumbent Greg Abbott with a third of the vote in.
If Democrats were able to secure a sizable majority in the Senate — the so-called blue wave scenario — the market — especially stocks related to the artificial intelligence buildout — could come under pressure, according to some on Wall Street. Investors fear a big Democratic win could mean more restrictions on data centers nationwide. AI-linked stocks have already pulled back in recent weeks on concern about a slowing pace in data-center spending.
Big Tech shares Microsoft, Amazon and Nvidia were all trading lower in extended trading. High-risk data center play CoreWeave was down 6% in Robinhood overnight trading. Elon Musk’s SpaceX was off by 4% on Robinhood.
Equities “trended lower as it’s looked more likely that Democrats are going to pick up the House and most likely the Senate,” said Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial.
“I think it’ll be more interesting on how the governorships go,” Saglimbene added. “If you get some governorships that are Democratic, what does that mean for the data center buildout, which has already seen a lot of skepticism over the last couple weeks in terms of the hyperscaler capex spending.”
S&P 500 futures, intraday
To be sure, the polls have yet to fully close in all states, and CNBC has not called any races. Election nights have often shown wild swings in markets. Many investors also believe any market move from this election would be short lived.
AMD shares initially surged double digits in post-market action after the company, a key player in the AI trade, reported third-quarter earnings and revenue that blew past analyst expectations. The stock was last up about 3% higher as stock market futures gave up their gains.
On the overall market, investors believe a blue wave would also be a headwind as it likely rules out any more business-friendly policies like tax breaks and possibly increases scrutiny on industries like banking.
Renewable shares like solar stocks traded higher in the post market on speculation a Democratic majority in Congress would halt policies by President Donald Trump taken against the industry. The Invesco Solar ETF was up 3.5% in Robinhood trading.
As equity futures fell into the red, Treasury yields moved lower, with the 10-year Treasury note yield dropping more than 3 basis points to 4.915%. Futures on the Cboe Volatility Index fear gauge increased, rising above 20, as investors braced for a pullback.
“Now all eyes turn to the president and the reaction that we may get from him,” said Jay Woods, chief market strategist at Freedom Capital Markets. “Will there be contested elections, will there be more uncertainty thrown into the ranks?”
“That’s where the market could really get riled up,” he said.
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