Tommy Paul is a fan-favorite in the United States, and as the ATP Cincinnati draw has opened up following a slew of upsets, he has a real shot to reach an ATP 1000 final for the first time. That is, if the French Open finalist or more unseeded threats don’t get in the way. LWOT has the predictions for Thursday’s quarterfinals, with a lot of US Open momentum on the line. Who will advance?
ATP Cincinnati Quarterfinal Predictions
Thiago Agustín Tirante vs Arthur Fils
Head-to-head: First meeting
What a dream week it’s been for Tirante, with the Argentinian expected to break into the Top 45 just ahead of the US Open. His huge forehand was key to stunning Novak Djokovic in the Cincinnati second round, and his latest 5-7 6-4 6-4 win over Jakub Mensik showcased his mental strength and resilience in the United States heat.
Fils, on the other hand, has also upset two Top 10 seeds en route to this stage, with a fourth round win over Alex De Minaur marking his tenth Top 10 win on the ATP Tour. The Frenchman’s powerful groundstrokes are hard to overlook, and I think Tirante’s dream run ends on Thursday after a tough battle.
Prediction: Fils in 2
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Tommy Paul vs Flavio Cobolli
Head-to-head: Cobolli 1-0
How are both players going to get ready for this quarterfinal? Paul came back from the brink to stun No. 1 seed Alexander Zverev in a Wednesday afternoon fourth round; less than 24 hours later, the American has an opportunity to reach a fifth ATP 1000 semifinal. Cobolli has gone through his own ups-and-downs during this tournament, with all his matches stretching into three-setters. The Italian will also have to recover from a long match against Rafael Jodar with a spot in a first ATP 1000 semifinal on the line. Despite his big jump into the Top 10 this season, the Italian still hovers around the 50% win mark on hard courts career-wise, according to Tennis Abstract.
Paul loves to play at home in the United States, though with an 8-8 career record in Cincinnati, it hasn’t been smooth sailing for the Florida native. Playing the big points tends to be a challenge for the American at times, so he’ll have to be clutch on the break points and serve big. I would be surprised if this match is wrapped up in straight sets. Cobolli did defeat Paul at the 2024 edition of this tournament.
Prediction: Paul in 3
Main Photo Credit: Aaron Doster-Imagn Images
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