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It’s no secret that the price of gold has been volatile over the last year or so. Gold’s price trajectory went from reaching new record highs month after month to declining and then surging back, with even more ups and downs in between.
The gold price rollercoaster is being driven by a few factors, including inflation trends, Federal Reserve policy, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and the changing investor demands that have resulted. Even after all that movement, though, gold still sits at $4,690 per ounce (as of April 6, 2026), which is well above its price from even one year ago.
Does that mean it’s a good idea to invest in the precious metal right now? Here’s what experts say you could expect to happen by the end of the year if you invested $25,000 in gold today.
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What $25,000 in gold could look like if prices decline in 2026
What goes up must come down, and experts say there’s a chance that gold prices could drop this year.
“The pendulum of gold’s price has swung far in one direction,” says Chris Berkel, investment advisor and president of AXIS Financial. “It’s not impossible for that pendulum to swing back, and for gold investors, they tend to see the yellow metal through rose-colored glasses and forget about the pain of a drawdown within the asset class.”
Jim Wiederhold, commodity indices product manager at Bloomberg Indices/Bloomberg Index Services Limited, says that gold’s appreciation cycles typically tend to last two to two-and-a-half years. And, gold began its current upward climb in late 2023.
“We are past the two-year period since the start of the move, so there is reason to believe we could be in for a period of consolidation,” Wiederhold says.
Unfortunately, if gold prices do decline, they have “a long way to fall,” Berkel says, so that $25,000 could lose quite a bit in value. In fact, Berkel says that a “50% drawdown in gold wouldn’t be out of the question.”
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What $25,000 in gold could look like if prices hold steady
Many people invest in gold to safeguard their money and retain their wealth at times when other asset classes are more volatile. Should gold prices hold steady, that’s just what would happen. A $25,000 investment in the precious metal would allow you to retain your money’s value, despite external circumstances.
According to Wiederhold, there’s a possibility that this is what happens with gold prices by the end of the year, provided that the volatile price cycles continue to ease.
“Simply based on historical price moves over the last 50 years, I would think this year could be a range-bound year for gold prices,” Wiederhold says. “We saw very extreme volatility in the gold price in the first quarter, and I would suspect this volatility will continue to come down as we continue this consolidation pattern through the year.”
What $25,000 in gold could look like if prices rise further
While gold did have quite the run-up over the last few years, there’s a chance it’s not done rising just yet. With the Iran conflict and other geopolitical turmoil ongoing, it could send more investors toward the safe-haven of gold, increasing prices as a result.
“Upper estimates are suggesting we see gold approach $6,000 and perhaps breach it,” says Brett Elliott, director of content at the American Precious Metals Exchange (APMEX). “If true, it would be a significant move, but it seems entirely plausible given last year’s 65% increase in gold prices.”
If you bought $25,000 in gold right now at today’s prices of $4,690 per ounce, you’d be able to purchase roughly 5.3 ounces with that budget. That amount at $6,000 per ounce would bring your investment up to $31,800 — or a gain of almost $7,000.
Even if that big of a jump doesn’t happen, though, a smaller but still healthy one could.
“Gold bullion’s price increases generally correlate with an increase in the global money supply with a two- to three-year lag,” says Thomas Winmill, portfolio manager at Midas Funds. “Over the last 10 years, gold has appreciated on average about 15% per year, and during the last year, global money supply increased about 10%. We would expect gold’s annual appreciation to return to a more ‘normal’ 10% per year level.”
A 10% would bring gold to about $5,456 per ounce — or a $25,000 investment up to just under $29,000.
The bottom line
Despite expert predictions, nothing’s set in stone for gold. And even if gold prices do drop, long-term investors can still see benefits from buying gold today. Historically, experts say, the precious metal tends to increase about 10% per year, so if held for many years or even decades, it should result in decent growth for most investors.
“If you intend to hold gold for years instead of months, the chances that you will get a positive return on your investment rise substantially,” Elliott says.
Gold can also serve as a smart diversifier, particularly in times of volatility or uncertainty. So even if growth isn’t in the cards over the next few years, it can still play an important role in your overall investment portfolio.
“Historically, it has relatively low correlations to stocks and bonds,” Berkel says. “So, I like it for ballast and stability more than its potential appreciation.”