A dangerous flood threat covering more than 55 million people spans over 1,500 miles from the Texas-Mexico border to Milwaukee Wednesday, as moisture from the remnants of Polo fuels thunderstorms capable of producing torrential rain.
THE TAKEAWAY
- Flood watches cover 11 states, with more expected over the coming days.
- Tropical moisture from Hurricane Polo will fuel the flood threat across the Southwest and Central U.S. through Wednesday.
- Three separate Flash Flood Emergencies were issued in New Mexico on Tuesday amid dam failure concerns.
- Nearly 70 trillion gallons of water could fall this week, potentially enough water to fill over 122 million Olympic-sized swimming pools.
A dangerous flood threat stretches more than 1,500 miles from the Texas-Mexico border to Milwaukee on Wednesday, putting more than 55 million people at risk as moisture from the remnants of Polo fuels thunderstorms capable of producing torrential rain.
A large dip in the jet stream that pulled up Polo will funnel in moisture from Hurricane Rachel, churning in the Pacific, creating a prolonged flood threat across the Central U.S. through the week. This weather pattern triggered widespread flooding across New Mexico Tuesday, including a Flash Flood Emergency in the Hatch Valley in the southern part of the state.
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Flash floods damage property in Lincoln, New Mexico, on Sep. 29, 2026.
(FOX Weather Exclusive Storm Tracker Mark Sudduth) -
Flash floods damage property in Lincoln, New Mexico, on Sep. 29, 2026.
(FOX Weather Exclusive Storm Tracker Mark Sudduth) -
Heavy rain along Rio Ruidoso, New Mexico, on Sep. 29, 2026.
(FOX Weather Exclusive Storm Tracker Mark Sudduth) -
Flooding in Crownpoint, New Mexico, on Sep. 28, 2026.
(Navajo Police Department/Facebook) -
Flooding in Laughlin, Nevada, on Sep. 28, 2026.
(Rock Doctor Adventures via Storyful)
All told, this dangerous week-long flash flood threat is spreading from the Southwest into the Plains and Midwest, putting more than 150 million people at risk.
A Flood Watch currently covers 11 states.
Week-long flood threat overview.
(FOX Weather / FOX Weather)
Trio of Flash Flood Emergencies issued in New Mexico amid dam failure concerns
Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches remained in effect across parts of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle early Wednesday as heavy rain soaked the region.
On Tuesday, three separate Flash Flood Emergencies were issued for Doña Ana County after dam operators reported the imminent failure of McLeod Dam in south-central New Mexico.
The Flash Flood Emergency carried the National Weather Service’s Particularly Dangerous Situation designation, warning residents in rural areas between Garfield and Salem to seek higher ground immediately.
Evacuations remain in effect for the community of Rincon early Wednesday, while evacuation orders have been lifted across Salem, Garfield, Hatch and Placitas as conditions improved, county officials said.
The National Weather Service said several retention dams were near full, rising about 10 feet in five hours, and intense runoff is flowing in the area.
WATCH: RESCUES UNFOLD IN NEW MEXICO AS HURRICANE POLO MOISTURE FUELS STATEWIDE FLOOD THREAT
According to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers National Inventory of Dams last updated in July 2023, the dam was built in 1953 and stands 25 feet high, stretching 6,774 feet long.
During its most recent inspection in 2023, the dam was listed in “poor” condition with a “high” hazard potential. The Corps defines high-hazard-potential dams as those where failure or misoperation would probably cause loss of human life.
🌧️1,500 MILE FLOOD THREAT: Flash Flood Warnings and Flood Watches remain in effect across parts of eastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle this morning as moisture from the remnants of Polo fuels a dangerous flood threat from the Texas-Mexico border to Milwaukee Wednesday. New Mexico saw widespread flooding Tuesday, including a Flash Flood Emergency. FOX Weather Senior Correspondent Robert Ray reports from Albuquerque.
The “poor” condition designation means a dam safety deficiency has been identified, and remedial action is necessary, or uncertainties remain about critical analysis parameters tied to a potential deficiency.
A Flash Flood Emergency was issued for Rincon in northwestern Doña Ana County until 6:30 p.m. MDT after county officials reported that the Rincon Arroyo breached levees near the Rincon water treatment plant.
The National Weather Service warned that floodwaters could threaten structures in the area.
Heavy rain along Rio Ruidoso, New Mexico, on Sep. 29, 2026.
(FOX Weather Exclusive Storm Tracker Mark Sudduth / FOX Weather)
Wednesday’s flood threat stretches from Minnesota to the Texas-Mexico border
The flood threat is expected to peak on Wednesday and Thursday as moisture from Hurricane Rachel adds more fuel to the ongoing storm pattern.
“Over 1,500 miles of continuous rain is possible starting on Wednesday as major cities waking up to rain include Chicago, Des Moines, Kansas City, Denver,” the FOX Forecast Center said.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued three separate bull’s-eye areas at greatest risk of flash flooding Wednesday.
Wednesday flash flood threat.
(FOX Weather)
A Level 3 out of 4 flood risk covers Central Oklahoma and Central Texas, where storms could potentially produce up to 3 inches of rain per hour.
Dallas, which has not seen measurable rain since July 16, is in the path of a significant flood threat, with the dry ground unable to absorb much water.
Wednesday flood threat along I-25 corridor.
(FOX Weather)
A separate Level 3 threat zone covers southern Colorado and extreme northern New Mexico, where the remnants of Polo will directly across.
“As the storm spins over the [Colorado], it could easily dump over 5 inches of rain over vulnerable areas — especially burn scar locations, like the Aspen Acres burn scar southwest of Pueblo,” the Forecast Center said.
Expected rainfall.
(FOX Weather)
Another area at highest risk of flash flooding covers northern Kansas, southeastern Nebraska and central Iowa Wednesday, including Hastings, Omaha, and Des Moines.
“Rain rates of up to 2 inches per hour are possible, with localized totals exceeding 6 inches,” the Forecast Center said.
Oklahoma and Texas will remain at the center of the flash flood threat, which will gradually begin to shift eastward through the end of the week.
Check back for updates on this developing story.
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