Hawaii is in the crosshairs again as yet another tropical cyclone approaches the Aloha State.
The system, now Tropical Storm Nolo, is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane by Thursday night and could become a major hurricane over the next couple of days, lashing the island chain with heavy rain, rough surf and storm surge, the National Hurricane Center said.
Forecasters hint that heavy rain, floods and mudslides will be the most dangerous aspect of the now 50-mph storm, currently 460 miles from Honolulu.
“This rainfall may produce catastrophic life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain,” the hurricane center said in a forecast late Wednesday night Hawaii time.
A forecast from AccuWeather says that as much as 55 inches of rain is possible from Nolo, which could rival Hawaii’s all-time highest rainfall total from a tropical cyclone. The record now belongs to Hurricane Lane, which dumped 58 inches on the Big Island in 2018.
Doyle Rice and Dinah Voyles Pulver are national correspondents with USA TODAY, focusing on weather and climate. Reach them at drice@usatoday.com and dpulver@usatoday.com.
Hurricane Center watches a busy Pacific
07:29 AM ET, September 24 2026, Dinah Voyles Pulver
Nolo is one of five storms and potential storms the hurricane center is tracking in the Pacific.
Category 5 Hurricane Polo was centered about 180 miles south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico, at 5 a.m. on Thursday. Its outer rainbands were raking Mexico’s southern coast. Peak winds at its center were 160 mph. Forecasters warned it could drop up to 8 inches of rainfall across coastal portions of the Mexican state of Guerrero as it moves farther offshore. It’s forecast to move westward and then turn north, making landfall on the southern coast of the Baja California Peninsula overnight Monday.
Hurricane Odalys, roughly 1,500 miles west of Polo, is forecast to move northward in the open ocean. Its forecast is uncertain later in the week, when the center’s forecasters say it could have some interaction with the more powerful storm.
A fourth storm is expected to form early next week out of a low-pressure area south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and move slowly west-northwest and northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico, the hurricane center said.
Between Nolo and Odalys in the open Pacific, forecasters are watching an area that could spawn another potential storm over the weekend, about 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.
The next storm names up on the eastern Pacific storm name list are Rachel and Simon. The next storm that forms in the Central Pacific would be named Olana.
The National Hurricane Center was watching two hurricanes, a tropical storm and two other potential storms in the Pacific Ocean on the morning of Sept. 24, 2026.
What’s the Nolo forecast rainfall in Hawaii?
07:19 AM ET, September 24 2026, Dinah Voyles Pulver
Forecasters believe this storm could bring extreme amounts of rain, with catastrophic flooding possible on Friday and Saturday for the Big Island, emergency officials said.
A flood watch is in effect for the eastern major islands, including Hawaii, Maui and Molokai, according to the National Weather Service in Honolulu.
The emergency agency warned of the following potential rain totals.
-
Hawaii Island: 15 to 20 inches, with isolated totals up to 35 inches on the windward and southeast side of the island.
-
Maui: 5 to 10 inches, with isolated totals up to 20 inches
Rainfall amounts as high as 35 inches could fall at higher elevations on the Big Island as Nolo passes south of the Hawaiian Islands, according to the National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center.
Why does Hawaii keep getting hit with storms?
07:07 AM ET, September 24 2026, Dinah Voyles Pulver and Doyle Rice
Nolo will be the seventh tropical system to bring impacts to the islands in the 2026 hurricane season.
El Niño in the Pacific Ocean tends to favor storm formation in the region.
Hurricane conditions could start by Friday night
06:55 AM ET, September 24 2026, Dinah Voyles Pulver and Doyle Rice
Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center said that hurricane conditions could reach the Big Island, where a hurricane watch was in place, by Friday night.
“Residents and visitors should take this threat very seriously,” said Hawaii’s Emergency Management Agency on Wednesday. The Big Island also could see hurricane-force winds surpassing 75 miles per hour on Friday and Saturday, the agency said.
Forecasters believe this storm could bring extreme amounts of rain with catastrophic flooding possible on Friday and Saturday for the Big Island, emergency officials said.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Tropical Storm Nolo could bring all-time record rainfall in Hawaii: Updates
Leave a Reply