We all know that preseason strength of schedules are not an exact science. They are most often based on the previous year’s record, while sometimes someone will look at projected win totals for the coming year. Those projected win totals are tricky with the .5 associated to each team. What we can say, is that based on records for this year, our schedule has toughened up slightly. We started out with the 5th easiest schedule, based on the records from last year having a .465 winning pct. It hasn’t changed a ton, but this year our opponents now carry a .472 winning percentage. This leaves 10 teams who play an “easier” schedule, based on this year’s record, than the Colts.
Most who watch the Colts with vigor, would say that we have a better offense than defense. That is where our schedule could play out in our favor. We got torched twice for 500+ yards, but those offenses currently rank 2nd and 6th in YPG. Over our last 14 games, we do not play another top 10 offense, based on that metric.
The Cowboys come in at #12 and then there are a bundle of mid level teams in the Texans (14), Bengals (15), Steelers (16), followed by the Jaguars (18) and Commanders (19). Of course these rankings are going to change as the season moves along and with the Colts ranking 25th themselves, it doesn’t suggest that we are going to win shootouts. We do play the three teams that currently reside as the bottom three in Minnesota, Tennessee X2, and the Giants.
I know that stats can be manipulated to tell most any story that you want to tell, so I am not basing my entire optimistic attitude towards the Colts on these numbers, but if you are out there looking for that ray of hope, this could satisfy your desire. Some will say that all this says is that good teams will still beat us. Teams that fit the profile of a “good team”, might be the Bengals, Eagles, and Jags, as I have a hard time putting the Browns, Giants and Vikings in that group, although Flores does have the Vikings D ballin.
So as far as the schedule goes, games are there for the taking. It will be that final nail that many are looking for in Ballard’s coffin, if the Colts can’t produce 11 wins against this schedule. That would mean going 10 – 4 the rest of the way. Those who poo pooed the 8 – 2 start a year ago, will certainly point this year’s schedule as the driving force for such a run. The two games against the Jags might have the final say in our season win total this year.
The first step is going 2 – 2 and beating Washington. They appear to be down a few players and will turn to an old Colts adversary in Mariota to try to even their record as well. If we truly are better, we need to show it in the way that we did against lesser teams last year and win convincingly. It will only be one game and will take on less of a “must win” feel than last week’s game, but attitude can be a valuable asset. The more wins that you can put together, the further in the rear view mirror you can put a 9 game losing streak.
I believe that our D will ride last week’s better game all the way to London and perform well again. I’m looking for three turnovers to bring the season total to four in four games. You would think that you could cause one per game by accident? If we play with the lead, it will be a long day for the Commanders. Their defense is pretty good against the run, so teams are content to throw against them. If they stack to slow JT, we should be able to make them pay. It would also be nice to get someone behind the defense for a couple of attempts.
I have us winning convincingly at 31 – 21.
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