More than a dozen “interconnected catastrophic threats” pose significant risk to global health and wellbeing through the remainder of the 21st century, researchers say – including the potential for extinction. But targeted action from world leaders can help avoid worst-case scenarios.
Using data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation’s Global Burden of Disease study, a commission of 35 leaders from various industries forecast the total years of good health that could be lost by the global population by due to sickness, disability or premature mortality from a range of threats.
Their findings, published in the journal The Lancet, identify 17 threats that pose the greatest danger – but also have the potential for realistic intervention.
The threats include health conditions and behaviors – such obesity, high blood pressure, smoking and mental health – as well as economic conditions, environmental change, technology and conflict.
The commission found that if current trends continue, these threats could collectively account for tens of billions of years of lost health.
“The striking finding is not only the scale of these threats, but that humanity still has the agency to act,” said Dr. Christopher Murray, co-chair of the new commission and director of the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation.
“Across all 17 catastrophic threats, the decisions made by leaders today will shape the health and wellbeing of the next generation. But delaying action will only serve to shift and increase the costs into the future,” Murray said in a statement.
Two threats pose a risk of extinction, the commission found: nuclear conflict and the malicious use of artificial intelligence.
Last month, an initial public offering for the AI company Anthropic said that its models could pose a “catastrophic or existential risk to humanity,” and people who worked in the industry have warned that AI could kill the entire human species, perhaps within the decade.
Various forecasters who the new Lancet commission worked with showed “wide divergence” in estimating the risk of AI-related catastrophe, according to the new report.
But the commissioners also note that the emergency of powerful AI systems is an example of “how quickly assumptions about stability can be overturned” – along with evidence from other “recent global shocks,” including the Covid-19 pandemic, the Ebola outbreak ongoing in Africa, and accelerating climate impacts.
The potential for healthy years of life lost due to malicious AI – about 10.4 billion years worldwide by 2100 – is about the same as some other risks including naturally occurring pandemics and obesity.
But because “no malicious AI event of a truly global magnitude” has yet occurred, the estimates for the risk posed by AI are theoretical. The risks posed by obesity, however, are based on more empirical data.
Data shows that overweight and obesity are increasing in every country, and estimates suggest that the global rate could reach 60% of adults and a third of children by 2050. Obesity is related to dozens of other poor health outcomes, particularly associated with increased caloric intake and decreased physical activity, and the commission forecasts a “major global impact of this cluster of behavioral risks.”
The goal of the new commission is not to rank threats but to “catalyse international, regional, and national actions to protect and strengthen the future of health and humanity,” according to a related editorial published in The Lancet.
“Recent global events show us just how quickly stability can give way to crisis, and how costly it is to respond only after disaster strikes. And the global threats to health risk amplifying existing inequalities, with the greatest burden falling on the most vulnerable communities. Yet the future is not inevitable,” Dr. Natalia Kanem, former executive director of the United Nations Population Fund and co-chair of the new commission, said in a statement. “Governments and communities must act decisively starting today, to protect health and build a fairer, more peaceful and more secure future for the coming generations.”
Trust is key to meaningful intervention, according to the new report.
It is a “stabilising force, enabling societies to anticipate, mitigate, and adapt,” the commissioners wrote. Distrust, however, can increase potential harm.
Along with trust, seven other factors will “shape how societies respond to threats in the future,” they wrote. They include collaborative global leadership, resilient food systems and efforts to foster more equitable societies.
“Public health is full of examples in which potential threats were known, and protection plans were in place, yet effective action failed,” the new report says. “Achieving meaningful progress will require not only technical solutions but also robust societal and institutional foundations that foster collaboration and accountability.”
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