16 exciting second-round matches are scheduled on day four at ATP Cincinnati, with some big names in action. As always, we here at LWOT will offer predictions for every match on the slate, including Taylor Fritz vs Alex Michelsen, but who will advance to the next round?
ATP Cincinnati Day 4 Predictions
Frances Tiafoe vs Lorenzo Sonego
Head-to-head: Sonego 3-1 Tiafoe
2024 ATP Cincinnati finallist Frances Tiafoe has had a slow start to his North American hard-court swing with an early loss in Washington and a mid-match retirement in Montreal. But disappointing as that was for the American, Tiafoe has played some great tennis this season, and it should be a matter of time before he finds his rhythm. Lorenzo Sonego easily defeated Shang Junchebg in the first round.
That performance will surely have given him confidence, and on suspect that the Italian will like his chances against Tiafoe, having beaten the American three times on the bounce. Equally, however, Sonego will be playing on hostile territory and, in what looks likely to be a serve-dominated match, Tiafoe’s experience in this tournament makes him the slight favourite.
It will be close, but expect the American to come out on top.
Prediction: Tiafoe in 3
Francisco Cerundolo vs Nuno Borges
Head-to-head: Cerundolo 1-1 Borges
Francisco Cerundolo has played some very good tennis this year, but the Argentine’s form has dipped significantly since his run to the Queen’s Club title, and he faces a stern test in his opening match here. This is Cerundolo’s fourth main-draw appearance in Cincinnati, but he is yet to win a match.
Nuno Borges is coming off a three-hour thriller against Thanasi Kokkinakis. The match was filled with drama and tense moments, but Borges’ recent form helped him get over the line. Cerundolo might have the higher ceiling of the two, but the Portuguese seems to be in a much better place and might just have enough to edge what looks like being a close contest.
Prediction: Borges in 3
Casper Ruud vs Christopher O’Connell
Head-to-head: first meeting
Casper Ruud, who has been struggling for form and fitness in recent weeks, and has not had any success since the French Open where he reached the f0urth round. Perhaps that means he is due for a deep run. However, ATP Cincinnati is one of his worst Masters 1000 tournaments in terms of results, and he has not won a match here since 2021. Christopher O’Connell has already played three matches here and has adjusted to the court speeds and conditions. Ruud needs to be careful and bring a healthy level to avoid the upset. I am just leaning towards Ruud due to his ranking and experience.
Prediction: Ruud in 3
Ben Shelton vs Jaime Faria
Head-to-head: first meeting
Ben Shelton played the best tennis of his season to defend his Canadian Open title, and this time he did it without dropping a set. Every department of Shelton’s game clicked in Montreal, and he will be looking to continue that form here. Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are not in the draw, and with Novak Djokovic eliminated, Shelton is once again one of the top contenders to win the tournament in conditions that suit his first-strike approach.
It won’t be an easy turnaround for Shelton, not least because Jaime Faria has been in good form recently, beating Nikoloz Basilashvili and Wu Yibing in the ATP Cincinnati qualifying, before dismissing Jenson Brooksby for the loss of only five games to reach the second round. But the Portuguese has not come up against the sort of power that Shelton can bring to bear, and it is hard to seem his competing with it from the baseline.
Shelton may well have to work for this win, but he should get over the line against Faria.
Prediction: Shelton in 3
Main photo credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images
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