The 2026 ATP Chengdu tournament gets underway in China. This is an ATP 250 event, so the purpose here for the players involved is less about the rankings points (though that’s not entirely irrelevant). When players play a 250, they are hunting matches and a trophy. They are trying to get wins, which will enable them to play multiple matches in a week, hoping that a title emerges at the end of their journey. Chengdu has a field of just 28 singles players, so the top four seeds get an opening-round bye and need just four wins to lift a trophy. It’s the start of the ATP’s fall season, a lead-in to the bigger events just around the corner. Players who did not play well (and therefore did not play a lot) in the spring and especially the North American hardcourt summer come to the ATP Chengdu event in late September hoping that being rested will translate into match wins and momentum which carries into October and November before the tennis season ends. LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
ATP Chengdu
James Duckworth – Lorenzo Sonego: 22:00 EST
H2H: 1-2
This ATP Chengdu match involves two players outside the top 60 but inside the top 90, so on paper, it figures to be fairly competitive. Sonego leads the head-to-head 2-1, but Duckworth won in Winston-Salem just one month ago, and he did so in straight sets. Duckworth is 13-13 on hardcourts this year, while Sonego is 5-6. The sportsbooks have installed Sonego as a clear but not overwhelming favorite. Are the books right on this one?
Best Bet to Make
Welcome to our best bet section. You’re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.
Parlay/hedge options: Duckworth +2.5 games at 1.65 at @bet-at-home
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – You should not bet on this match.
This ATP Chengdu match is not easy to bet on, given that Duckworth very recently beat Sonego in straight sets. Does that mean Sonego will get revenge here, or has Duckworth figured out Sonego? It’s not an easy call. Sonego is favored for one reason: He took eventual US Open champion Alexander Zverev to a fifth set in New York. That’s why he’s favored. Does that guarantee a Sonego win? No. We’re going with Sonego moneyline but don’t feel confident at all about the pick.
That being said, betting on Sonego moneyline is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: Sonego moneyline at 1.73 at @bet-at-home
Tallon Griekspoor – Denis Shapovalov: 22:00 EST
H2H: 1-1
This ATP Chengdu match pits two established veterans against each other. Interestingly, both Tallon Griekspoor and Denis Shapovalov lost to Ben Shelton at the US Open. Griekspoor is 7-10 on hardcourts this year. Shapovalov is 10-10.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay/hedge options: Griekspoor moneyline at 2.26 at @1xbet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – you should not bet on this match.
This ATP Chengdu match feels like a coin flip. There is not a wildly dramatic difference between the two players, suggesting a very close battle. We don’t think you should bet on this match. If you absolutely insist, over 2.5 sets looks good. The two matches between these players (head-to-head 1-1) went three sets.
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is the best bet you can make
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets at 2.30 @10bet
Juncheng Shang – Adrian Mannarino: 22:00 EST
H2H: 0-1
Juncheng Shang is 5-8 on hardcourts this year. Adrian Mannarino is 4-12 on the surface going into this ATP Chengdu match. Sheng has lost three matches in a row. Mannarino is 1-2 in his last three, but his one win was in a challenger event against a lower-ranked opponent. Neither man is playing well right now.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay/hedge options: Sheng -2.5 games at 1.62 at @betsson
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – you should not bet on this match.
This is not a great ATP Chengdu match to bet on because neither man is performing at a high level. It’s like any sporting competition between bad teams. You don’t want to bet on Coventry versus Crystal Palace in the Premier League. You can’t count on either side to be good on that day. It’s similar here. How can you trust either player? Sheng has lost three in a row and is a 1.40 moneyline favorite. We don’t think you should bet on this match, but if you insist, we think Mannarino to win one set looks like great value.
That being said, betting on Mannarino +1.5 sets is the best bet you can make
Value bet/ the best odds: Mannarino +1.5 sets at 1.80 @10bet
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images
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