Daniil Medvedev vs. Sho Shimabukuro prediction, odds, picks for ATP Almaty Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Thursday’s Medvedev-Shimabukuro men’s singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Medvedev a 91% chance of defeating Shimabukuro at the ATP Almaty Open tournament.
Additionally, Medvedev has an 86% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Shimabukuro (+5.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 19.5 games has a 55% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

Moneyline: Sho Shimabukuro +870, Daniil Medvedev -1429
First Set: Medvedev -714, Shimabukuro +450

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Moneyline: Shimabukuro @ +870 via DraftKings
First Set: Shimabukuro @ -105 via DraftKings

According to our best tennis bets, the top play to make on this match is Sho Shimabukuro to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Almaty Open match between Daniil Medvedev and Sho Shimabukuro is scheduled to start on Thursday at 7:00 AM ET.

Who: Daniil Medvedev vs. Sho Shimabukuro
Date: Thursday, October 22, 2026
Approx. Time: 7:00 AM ET/4:00 AM PT
Tournament: ATP Almaty, Kazakhstan Men’s Singles 2026
Round: Round of 16

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Daniil Medvedev, with a 91% win probability, will likely beat Sho Shimabukuro at the ATP Almaty Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article’s predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers’ proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.

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