Hurricane Isaias is headed for a Gulf Coast landfall Friday night with life-threatening storm surge, rainfall flooding and high winds. It will then spread its heavy rain and wind inland over the Southeast this weekend.
Preparations to protect life and property from damaging winds and storm surge near the northern Gulf Coast should be finished by tonight.
(MORE: Hurricane Isaias maps tracker | Oct. 8 Highlights)
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Where is Hurricane Isaias now?
Isaias has sustained winds of 100 mph and is centered in the Gulf less than 300 miles south of the mouth of the Mississippi River. The storm is moving to the northeast at 13 mph.
It’s expected to strengthen more tonight in the central Gulf and then will take more northerly track to landfall.
The latest watches and warnings
Storm surge warning: Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River, Florida. A storm surge watch extends south to Yankeetown, Florida.
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Hurricane warning: Along the Gulf Coast from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida, and also inland in parts of southwest Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle (shaded in purple on the map below).
Tropical storm warning: Along the Gulf Coast from the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line south of New Orleans to west of Ocean Springs, Mississippi, and east of the Bay/Gulf County line to the Aucilla River, Florida. These warnings also extend to much of inland southern Alabama, parts of southeast Mississippi, the rest of the Florida Panhandle not in hurricane alerts and extreme southwestern Georgia (shaded in red in the map below).
Hurricane watch: A small area of south-central Alabama (shaded in orange in the map below).
Tropical storm watch: From parts of eastern Mississippi, extending north into central Alabama and parts of western Georgia (shaded in yellow in the map below).
(MORE: What all these tropical terms mean)
How strong could Isaias get?
Isaias is benefiting from Gulf water temperatures well into the 80s and a moist air mass, both favorable for intensification until early Friday.
But Isaias will experience increasing wind shear as it moves farther north Friday nearing its Gulf Coast landfall.
Wind shear is hostile for both developing tropical systems and hurricanes. You can see the wind shear map below; the colors in darker purple and white indicate strong wind shear.
Therefore, Isaias is likely to lose some wind intensity closer to landfall.
For now, the most likely intensity near landfall is a Category 1 or potentially a Category 2 hurricane. But a slight drop in wind speeds right before landfall will do little to diminish the storm’s impacts.
(MORE: What you need to know during hurricane season)
Isaias’ potential impacts
The most significant impacts will be felt along and to the east of the storm’s track and its inland remnant.
Isaias is also expected to grow in size near landfall, expanding its footprint of impacts.
Storm surge
The map below shows how much inundation of normally dry ground may occur near the coast from water pushing in from the Gulf as the center of Isaias moves ashore Friday night into early Saturday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.
These values represent the peak flood levels if the storm surge happens around high tide.
This is a life-threatening storm surge, especially in areas shaded in yellow and orange in the map below.
Winds
Damaging winds are most likely in areas covered by hurricane and tropical storm alerts, shown in the graphic near the top of this article, from extreme southeast Louisiana and southeastern Mississippi to central and southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and parts of western Georgia.
Strong winds could pick up as soon as Friday and continue at least through Saturday morning near the Gulf Coast.
High winds are also possible Saturday into at least Sunday morning farther inland in the Tennessee Valley and Smoky Mountains.
Downed trees, power lines and power outages that could last for hours or multiple days are possible in these areas. Trees could be toppled easier in ground soaked by heavy rain.
Rainfall
Heavy rain from Isaias will arrive along the Gulf Coast Friday, then will push far inland through the rest of the weekend.
As much as 15 inches of rain could fall locally near the Gulf Coast, especially east of the track of the center where training heavy rainbands may persist the longest. Most other areas near the Gulf Coast are forecast to pick up 4 to 8 inches of rain.
Most of the rest of the Southeast is forecast to pick up 1 to 5 inches of rain.
Locally flash flooding is possible over most of the Southeast, Appalachians and parts of the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic this weekend.
(MORE: What is the ‘dirty side’ of a hurricane?)
Tornadoes
As often is the case with landfalling hurricanes, there is a threat for tornadoes in outer rainbands as the center approaches land Friday, then possibly again Saturday in parts of the Southeast.
Day-by-day forecast for Isaias
Friday, conditions will begin to deteriorate along the Gulf Coast.
Anywhere from New Orleans to Tallahassee should see the worst of the rain and winds, but rainfall is also expected in central Florida and even into southeastern Georgia.
Saturday, Isaias will move farther inland and weaken, but its impacts will be far from over.
Heavy rainfall and powerful winds will spread inland across the Southeast. Cities like Jackson, Memphis, Nashville, Atlanta, Wilmington, Charleston, Tallahassee and Orlando could see the worst of the conditions.
Sunday, what is left of Isaias will continue to move north, bringing rainfall to parts of the Great Lakes and even the Northeast.
Rainfall will still be ongoing as far south as Savannah and Nashville but will spread to Charlotte, Virginia Beach, Washington, New York City, Philadelphia and Baltimore. Rain could even fall for Cincinnati and Detroit.
What you should do
If you’re near the Gulf Coast in areas covered by hurricane warnings and/or storm surge warnings, complete your preparations quickly before conditions begin deteriorating Friday.
If asked to evacuate by local officials, please consider doing so for your own safety.
If remaining home, be prepared for power outages that could last at least several hours or possibly multiple days.
Avoid flood-prone areas and never drive into flooded stretches of roads.
Impact risk
The map below shows the general risk from Isaias and its inland remnant, including from rainfall flooding, winds and storm surge near the coast. This map will update throughout the duration of the storm.
The impact levels on the map mean:
- “Aware” (yellow): Some significant impacts could occur. Check frequently for forecast updates ahead.
- “Prepare” (orange): More widespread, significant storm impacts are increasingly possible. Consider stocking up on supplies, plan for potential power outages and know your evacuation or escape routes if you live in an area prone to storm surge or rainfall flooding.
- “Alert” (red): Storm impacts will arrive soon or are already occurring. Put your preparedness plan into action. Heed any orders from local officials to evacuate and remain in safe shelter once conditions deteriorate until the storm is over.
(MORE: Stay prepared this hurricane season)
How to pronounce Isaias
Isaias (ees-ah-EE-ahs) is one of the trickier names to pronounce on this year’s list. To hear the correct pronunciation, listen here.
Isaias replaced “Ike” on one of the Atlantic name lists after that name was retired following the destructive, deadly 2008 hurricane.
It wasn’t used during its first year of eligibility in 2014, since we only reached the eighth name, Hanna, that year.
However, the name was used in 2020 for a storm that eventually tracked up the East Coast with destructive winds.
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