On Sunday, Falcons quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returns to the place where he made his last start with the Dolphins. And he’s the starter, for now, with his new team.
He essentially won the job by default, prevailing in a competition for which the other primary contender has yet to be able to truly compete. It seems to be a given that, once Michael Penix Jr. believes he’s able to play and, more importantly, to protect himself and his surgically-repaired knee while playing, Penix will take over.
For now, Tua has a chance to fend off a benching. If he can’t, he may not be able to fend off a termination.
There is, we’re told, a “strong possibility” Tua will be released if/when he’s replaced. The chance of that happening will increase if he eventually yields not to Penix but to veteran Cooper Rush, who has 16 NFL starts under his belt.
The Falcons signed Tagovailoa to a one-year, $1.21 million contract. It technically becomes fully guaranteed as CBA-mandated termination pay, if he’s on the Week 1 roster. But with the Dolphins owing him $54 million minus whatever he earns elsewhere in 2026, he could choose to forgo the termination pay from Atlanta — especially since it’s a one-time-only benefit.
Even if the Falcons have to pay his salary, it’s a minuscule investment. And it was worth rolling the dice; last year, Tua led the Dolphins to a convincing win over the Falcons in Atlanta.
This year, something is off. It’s been obvious when he played in the preseason.
If/when Tagovailoa is released, he’ll be a free agent (unless the release comes after the trade deadline). The next question would be whether another team would sign him. He’d have to be willing to embrace backup status, and a new team would have to be confident he could function in that role.
The bigger question is whether he can function on the field, if/when he plays. It seems that the league at large has figured out how to stop him from doing the things that made him the NFL leader in passing yardage in 2023, unlocking what was in hindsight a massive mistake by Miami to give Tua a contract in the range of market value.
The more immediate challenge for Tua is to return to Acrisure Stadium and to have a better performance than he did last December, in the game that got him benched and eventually released by the Dolphins. In many respects, his tenure in Atlanta (and possibly his career) is riding on it.
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