President Donald Trump is riding once again into the lone-star state to try and ward off the Democrats.
Battling razor-thin leads in Texas polling and his lowest popularity ratings ever, Trump’s upcoming third rally on Oct. 7 in the land of the Alamo is his latest attempt to salvage hope for the upcoming Nov. 3 midterm elections.
The stakes are high and Texas has become a frequent stop for Trump, who headlined the Republican National Convention in Dallas on Sept. 9 and 10. And he rallied voters Oct. 1 in Denton, Texas. His latest stop will be in San Antonio.
“Texas represents so much,” Trump told the crowd in Denton.
Democrats aren’t backing down. In a state that’s been a Republican stronghold, Democrats haven’t won a statewide election in Texas since 1994. But Renee Cross, senior executive director of the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston, said voter registration shows Texas isn’t quite as conservative is it appears on the surface.
The registration numbers bear that out, she says, with about 45% Republican, 45% Democrat and 15% independent.
“We have a lot of unaffiliated voters. We have a lot of independent voters,” Cross told USA TODAY. “Among independents, Trump is polling terribly.”
Keeping Sen. John Cornyn’s seat in Republican hands is crucial for Trump and the party to control the Senate, which they now lead with a 53-47 majority. Losing control of one or both chambers of Congress would hurt the president’s legislative agenda and expose his administration and family to investigations.
Trump has been campaigning for GOP Attorney General Ken Paxton, a flawed candidate burdened with bribery allegations and marital drama. Polls have shown the race between Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico too close to call.
GOP Gov. Greg Abbott, who is seeking a record fourth term, supports many Trump priorities including strict border security that is a centerpiece of the president’s domestic policy. But polls show a neck-and-neck race against Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa.
Trump brings a mixed bag − motivating both Republicans to support him and Democrats to oppose him − while rallying voters for the Nov. 3 midterm elections. High gas prices and the lingering war with Iran handed Trump the lowest approval ratings of his presidency. But he generates enthusiasm in a non-presidential election, inviting supporters to pretend he’s on the ballot.
“When I go there, they pick up a lot of seats,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Oct. 5, as he left for Grand Island, Nebraska, after earlier trips within the last week to Texas, Oklahoma and Ohio. “When I go there they win.”
President Donald Trump gestures as he arrives from Grand Island, Nebraska after attending a rally, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, on Oct. 5, 2026.
Mark Jones, a political-science professor at Rice University in Houston, said Republican candidates are hurt by their association with Trump. He cited congressional maps along the Rio Grande Valley drawn to benefit Republicans that are competitive this year.
“Republicans are really on their heels in Texas,” Jones told USA TODAY.
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Trump endorsed Paxton, calling him a “friend” in “a big race” while insulting Talarico as “Tala-freak-o.”
“To put a guy, a freak like that in there would be such a horror to your state and such a horror to the country,” Trump said. “And I think we’re going to win.”
But Talarico led Paxton 51% to 49% in a New York Times/Siena Poll conducted Sept. 21 to 30. The poll of 615 likely voters had a margin of error of 5.2 percentage points. The difference in other September polls aggregated by Real Clear Politics found narrower results within the margin of error.
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton speaks to West Texas Republicans and voters at his Senate campaign stop in Lubbock, Texas on Sept. 19, 2026.
The governor’s race also appears to be a nail-biter.
Hinojosa was supported by 49% of voters, compared with 46% supporting Abbott, which was within the 5.2 percentage point margin of error, according to the New York Times/Siena Poll. The candidates have been within the margin of error in recent polling, according to an average by Real Clear Politics.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, left, and Gina Hinojosa, a Democratic candidate for Texas governor.
Abbott told a law enforcement roundtable in Houston on Oct. 5 that he wouldn’t be appearing with Trump in San Antonio on Oct. 7 because of other campaign events already planned. But Abbott said Trump helps turnout.
“When the president shows up, it creates excitement among the base,” Abbott said. “He does a good job of organizing the base and turning people out.”
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: This ain’t his first rodeo: Trump heads to Texas to rally GOP
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