Trump approval ratings sink ahead of midterms

Updated Oct. 4, 2026, 6:26 p.m. ET

President Donald Trump‘s poll numbers keep getting worse, and so is the timing for Republicans. With the midterm elections just weeks away, new polls show the president facing some of the weakest approval ratings of his political career, raising fresh questions about whether the GOP can hold onto its narrow congressional majorities.

It’s been a rough stretch for Trump. A string of surveys released over the past week has found his approval rating stuck in the upper 30s, while major polling averages show more Americans disapprove of his job performance than approve of it.

Those numbers have some political analysts warning that Republicans could be in for a difficult election night, particularly if Democratic voters remain highly motivated and turnout falls short on the GOP side.

“There’s no floor for Republicans right now,” Zachary Donnini, head of data science at VoteHub, told USA TODAY. “I think there’s a 20 or 25% chance the midterm outcome is devastating for Republicans because Trump is super unpopular and Republican voters seem to be not super enthused to come out.”

Democrats, meanwhile, have growing reasons for optimism heading into November

Why Democrats are feeling optimistic

Trump’s declining approval ratings come as many Americans remain unhappy with the economy. According to a new AP-NORC poll released last week, 65% of Americans said they blamed the president’s policies for increasing costs.

Meanwhile, Trump’s overall standing with voters remains deeply underwater. He currently has an average approval rating of 37% and a disapproval rating of 61% among U.S. adults, according to a polling average compiled by The New York Times.

Those dynamics have given Democrats growing confidence about their chances in November.

“The good news for Democrats is the people who are actually going to come out and vote in November, we think, are going to be even more Democratic than adults,” Donnini said. “Democrats have this high-propensity coalition.”

As of now, Decision Desk HQ forecasts Democrats retaking the Senate with 51 seats and winning a more comfortable majority in the House with 234 seats.

A brutal week of polling for Trump

The recent surveys tell a consistent story: Trump’s approval ratings remain near the lowest levels of his political career.

In the same AP-NORC poll released last week, Trump’s approval rating sat at 31%, the lowest level recorded across either of his two terms. His previous career low of 32% was recorded in separate AP-NORC surveys conducted between late September and early December 2017, during his first term in office.

A Wall Street Journal poll released last weekend put Trump’s approval rating at 37%. That was two points lower than former President George W. Bush’s 39% approval rating ahead of the 2006 midterm elections.

Democrats went on to gain five Senate seats and 31 House seats that year, reclaiming control of both chambers of Congress for the first time in a decade.

A Quinnipiac University poll released Sept. 30 found Trump’s approval rating at 34%, compared with 61% disapproval. The disapproval number matched the highest Quinnipiac had ever recorded for Trump.

The last time Trump reached 61% disapproval in a Quinnipiac poll was Jan. 18, 2021, just days after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

Could the polls be wrong?

Despite Democrats’ strength in recent polling, Republicans may have one reason for hope: their voters have become increasingly difficult for pollsters to reach.

“It’s really hard to get Republicans to answer polls right now,” Donnini said.

That dynamic could mean Democratic candidates ultimately perform worse than polling currently suggests on a national congressional ballot.

“We’re at the point where a 2018-level wave would be a big disappointment for Democrats,” Donnini said.

According to RealClearPolitics, Democrats won the national congressional ballot by 8.4 percentage points in 2018, gaining 40 House seats while losing two Senate seats.