When the College Football Playoff was first expanded to 12 teams in 2024, it immediately opened the door for programs across the country that had little to no chance of making the previous four-team field. In fact, the CFP’s inaugural 12-team field included four programs — Arizona State, Boise State, Indiana, and SMU — that didn’t even begin the 2024 season ranked in either the AP or Coaches’ preseason Top 25.
The College Football Playoff came back to earth in 2025 when the entire 12-team field was represented in both of the preseason Top 25 polls. Still, five of those teams — Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Indiana, Ole Miss, and Texas Tech — began last season ranked between 18th and 23rd in the AP Preseason Top 25.
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Of course, the 20th-ranked Hoosiers went on to run the table and win the program’s first-ever national championship in football with a perfect 16-0 season in 2025. Meanwhile, the 21st-ranked Rebels had their own magical run to the CFP semifinals before falling to eventual national runner-up Miami.
Given the Playoff’s newfound parity, USA Today identified five teams that didn’t make the cut in its 2026 Preseason Coaches Top 25 Poll released last week that it believes could make the 2026 CFP this season. And, as you’ll notice, there’s a heavy focus on the potentially wide-open races in the ACC and Big 12:
2025 record: 1-11 (0-9 Big 12)
Following its worst season since a winless 1991, Oklahoma State hired North Texas offensive wunderkind Eric Morris after the Mean Green led the FBS in scoring and total offense in 2025. Upon his arrival in Stillwater, Morris immediately overhauled the Cowboys by importing dozens of former North Texas stars.
Key among that talent influx were gunslinging QB Drew Mestemaker, who led all of college football with nearly 4,400 passing yards last season, and RB Caleb Hawkins, who scored an FBS-best 25 rushing touchdowns as a freshman in 2025. And while such an extreme Year 1 turnaround might be difficult to imagine, a favorable 2026 schedule could help pave the way for a surprise at-large Playoff bid this season.
USA Today: “If Oklahoma State goes 10-2 with losses to Oregon and Texas Tech, it could feasibly earn an at-large bid, even with a conference championship loss.”
2025 record: 9-4 (5-4 Big 12)
TCU might be a bit of a surprise inclusion given the Horned Frogs’ history with the CFP, advancing to the 2022 national championship game against Georgia when it was still a four-game field. Of course, since then, TCU head coach Sonny Dykes has struggled to even make it competitive in the Big 12.
That said, there could be room for hope in 2026, especially given the wealth of returning talent along both offensive and defensive lines, as well as the arrival of dual-threat QB Jaden Craig from Harvard. With a more than manageable Big 12 schedule, Dykes and the Horned Frogs could be a surprise conference contender and work their way into Playoff consideration with a late-season push.
USA Today: “TCU could be a sneaky team in a conference lacking top-end teams outside of Texas Tech and BYU.”
2025 record: 10-4 (6-2 Mountain West)
Year 1 under former SEC head coach Dan Mullen was an unmitigated success, despite falling to Boise State in last season’s Mountain West championship game. But with the Broncos now apart of the rebuilt Pac-12, Mullen’s UNLV is the overwhelming favorite to win the Mountain West in 2026.
And if the Rebels can deftly navigate a challenging non-conference schedule that features Cal, Memphis and North Texas, a Mountain West-champion UNLV could find itself as the highest-ranked Group of Six program on Selection Sunday and earn its CFP bid that way.
USA Today: “UNLV’s continuity on its coaching staff gives it the leg up on the American’s top CFP contenders after Jon Sumrall left Tulane for Florida and Morris left North Texas.”
2025 record: 9-4 (4-4 ACC)
After opening last season on a 7-1 tear, Jeff Brohm‘s Louisville fell flat down the stretch, losing three of its last four games against ACC rivals Cal, Clemson and SMU — which should all be even better in 2026. Still, the Cardinals return a wealth of talent, led by star RBs Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown.
If Brohm can help transform former four-star QB Lincoln Kienholz into a legitimate star after washing out at Ohio State, Louisville could have enough offensive talent to compete with the best the ACC has to offer. And with a friendly conference slate that avoids league favorites Miami and Clemson this season, the Cardinals could be primed for an ACC title game appearance in Charlotte, where all bets are off.
USA Today: “Louisville will need to run the table in conference play … to have a shot, but the Cardinals have a real path to the ACC championship game.”
2025 record: 3-9 (2-6 ACC)
Virginia Tech made the first big splash of last season’s coaching carousel by hiring former Penn State head coach James Franklin after he was unceremoniously fired in October following a disastrous start. Still, Franklin has his own history with the CFP, including guiding the Nittany Lions to the 2024 semifinals.
And, after raiding Penn State’s roster and recruiting class, Franklin completely rebuilt the Hokies’ roster, including adding former four-star QB Ethan Grunkemeyer, who will finally get his chance to start in 2026. The one issue could be Virginia Tech’s schedule, which includes difficult road games at Clemson, Miami, and SMU — all expected ACC contenders.
USA Today: “Betting on Virginia Tech is a bet on talent, though, with the Hokies boasting one of the better rosters in the conference.”