Visa Hit a Record High Despite a Swipe-Fee Threat. Here’s What October 27 Has to Prove

Key Takeaways

Visa reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on Oct. 27, after a run to a record high and with Washington threatening its fees.
The real test is the fiscal 2027 outlook. It needs to back the Street’s call for about 14% EPS growth, with expenses growing slower than revenue.
Visa’s operating margin has held near 67% for five fiscal years, but expenses grew faster than revenue in the first nine months of fiscal 2026.
At 28x forward earnings, above its five-year average of 27x, the stock needs that growth to hold, and the Nov. 3 midterms will decide whether the swipe-fee bill moves.

Visa (V:NYSE) ran to a record high this month, even though President Trump has promised to sign a bill that would let merchants send credit card sales over rival networks.

Now Visa has to show the growth behind that price. It reports fiscal fourth-quarter results on Tuesday, Oct. 27, after the close.

A beat may not be enough

Friday showed how high the bar is. American Express beat Wall Street’s earnings estimate and raised the low end of its full-year forecast, and its stock still fell. Visa and Mastercard slipped with it.

So the quarter matters less than what management says about the year ahead. Visa gave its first fiscal 2026 outlook on last October’s fourth-quarter call, and investors will expect the same for fiscal 2027.

The Street wants 14% more

Fiscal 2026 ended on Sept. 30. Analysts expect normalized EPS of $13.23 for it, up 15% from $11.47 in fiscal 2025. For fiscal 2027, the consensus of 40 analysts is $15.02, another 14%.

Visa (V): normalized EPS, actual and consensus estimates, $ per share, fiscal 2023–2028 (years to September) (TIKR)

Those estimates have edged up over the past year. The fiscal 2027 figure stood at $14.47 at the end of September 2025. An outlook that points below $15.02 would undo that progress.

TIKR tracks 40 analysts on Visa. How many say “Buy”?

See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Visa, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Visa’s Analyst Ratings

The margin has stopped expanding

Expenses are the part to watch. Visa’s operating margin has held at about 67% for five straight fiscal years.

Visa (V): operating (EBIT) margin (%), fiscal 2021–2025 (years to September) (TIKR)

This year it slipped a little. On Visa’s adjusted basis, operating margin was 67.8% in the first nine months of fiscal 2026, against 68.3% a year earlier, as expenses grew 17% and revenue 15%. Management ties part of that expense growth to the World Cup marketing campaigns it ran for clients, and fiscal 2027 has no FIFA tournament.

The margin also leans on pricing. In the fiscal third quarter, service revenue grew 14% while payments volume grew 9%, and management named pricing as one of the drivers. The routing bill would hit that pricing directly: competing networks would cut into the fees Visa charges.