Xiao Long vs. Francesco Nuzzi prediction, odds, pick for UFC Shanghai

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UFC Shanghai: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Song Yadong continues on the prelims with a fight between Xiao Long and Francesco Nuzzi in the bantamweight division. Check out our UFC Shanghai odds series for our Long-Nuzzi prediction and pick.

Xiao Long (27-11) enters this bout on a two-fight skid, most recently dropping a unanimous decision to Cody Garbrandt in March 2026 after also losing a decision to SuYoung You the previous August, results that dropped his UFC mark to 3-3, as she comes into this fight this weekend against Francesco Nuzzi.

Francesco Nuzzi (11-2, 2 NC) makes his UFC debut on short notice fresh off a bounce-back finish of Lucas Rodrigues at Cage Warriors 195 last October, though his most recent outing ended in a No Contest after a low blow forced an early stoppage, as she comes into this fight this weekend against Xiao Long.

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UFC Shanghai Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.

UFC Shanghai Odds: Xiao Long-Francesco Nuzzi Odds

Xiao Long: -175

Francesco Nuzzi: +145

Over 2.5 rounds: -140

Under 2.5 rounds: +110

Why Xiao Long Will Win

Xiao Long enters this fight with genuine UFC-level seasoning, holding a 3-3 record inside the Octagon after making his promotional debut back in June 2024. Francesco Nuzzi, by contrast, is stepping in on short notice for his first-ever UFC appearance, a scenario that historically favors the more established fighter.

Long’s finishing résumé is significantly more dangerous, with five knockouts and nine submissions among his 27 career wins. That kind of well-rounded finishing ability across multiple methods gives him more paths to victory than a fighter making his short-notice debut can typically prepare for .

Camp disruption matters enormously in a striking-heavy division like bantamweight, and Nuzzi’s most recent fight ended in a no contest due to a low blow, meaning he hasn’t had a clean, full training camp cycle recently. Long, despite his own two-fight skid, has at least had consistent UFC-level training and preparation.

Nuzzi’s power and grappling are real threats, but asking any fighter to absorb a short-notice call-up against a veteran with Long’s finishing instincts is a tall order. Cardio and fight-IQ under pressure typically favor the more tested veteran.

Expect Long to use his superior finishing arsenal and camp preparation to pressure Nuzzi early, exploit any short-notice jitters, and secure a finish before the fight reaches the judges’ scorecards.

Why Francesco Nuzzi Will Win

Xiao Long arrives at this fight on a two-fight losing streak, having dropped decisions to both SuYoung You and Cody Garbrandt in his last two outings. That kind of extended skid often erodes confidence and can show up in hesitation during key exchanges.

Francesco Nuzzi, meanwhile, carries real motivation into his UFC debut, a career-defining opportunity that tends to produce peak adrenaline and focus regardless of the short-notice circumstances. His only real blemish recently was a no-contest caused by an accidental low blow, not a finish against him.

Nuzzi’s 11-2 record includes real finishing ability, and fighters who earn UFC contracts through impressive regional performances often bring an underrated skill level that outpaces expectations. Long’s own recent form suggests he may be trending in the wrong direction just as Nuzzi is entering his prime.

Long’s aging veteran status at 28 with 38 professional fights on his ledger means significant accumulated wear, while Nuzzi’s body has absorbed far less damage across his shorter career, giving him fresher legs deep into the later rounds.

If Nuzzi can weather any early jitters from the short-notice call-up and lean on his power and finishing instincts, his motivation and physical freshness could be enough to hand Long a third straight loss and steal the show in his own UFC debut.

Final Xiao Long-Francesco Nuzzi Prediction & Pick

Xiao Long’s genuine UFC-level seasoning should prove decisive against a fighter making his promotional debut on short notice. His 3-3 Octagon record, while not spotless, gives him a real feel for the pace and pressure that Francesco Nuzzi simply hasn’t experienced yet.

Long’s finishing arsenal is significantly more diverse, with five knockouts and nine submissions among his 27 career wins. That kind of well-rounded threat level gives him multiple avenues to end the fight early, whereas Nuzzi will need to adjust in real time to Long’s timing and distance .

Nuzzi’s short-notice camp disruption, capped by a no-contest in his last outing due to a low blow, likely left him without a full, clean training cycle heading into this bout.

Expect Long to use his veteran composure to weather any early adrenaline-fueled pressure from Nuzzi, then find his openings in the second round to secure a finish, either via ground-and-pound or a well-timed submission attempt as the fight progresses.

Final Xiao Long-Francesco Nuzzi Prediction & Pick: Xiao Long (-175); UNDER 2.5 Rounds (+110)

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