Democrats dig deeper into Trump territory as House map shifts left

Updated Oct. 27, 2026, 6:37 a.m. ET

Blake Gendebien has tried to convince Democrats he can win New York’s 21st Congressional District for nearly two years.

The second-generation dairy farmer launched his campaign soon after President Donald Trump picked the district’s Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik to be his ambassador to the United Nations. But Trump, who won the rural upstate district by 21 percentage points in 2024, withdrew the nomination as Republicans grew concerned about the risk a special election posed after recent strong showings by Democrats.

“We just kept running,” Gendebien told USA TODAY. “We’ve been crisscrossing the district for almost two years now.”

Over that time, new developments in the district made Democrats take a closer look. Stefanik declined to run for reelection. Anthony Constantino, a sticker company CEO who released a rap album praising Trump, won the president’s endorsement and trounced a state assemblyman in the GOP primary. Democrats added Gendebien to their Red to Blue list on Oct. 5.

Days later, a Times Union/Siena poll showed him leading Constantino by 4 points, within the margin of error.

In the final stretch of the midterm elections, Democrats are making a last-minute push to boost candidates such as Gendebien who are running in newly competitive seats deep in Trump territory. Democrats see a unique opportunity to widen the battlefield as election forecasters have shifted seats in their favor, recent polling has shown tightening contests, and voters remain frustrated with Trump’s stewardship of the economy.

Another telling sign has been Republicans’ spending tactics, as GOP super PACs have pulled funding out of once competitive seats.

Democrats argue their candidates – many of them farmers, union members and veterans – fit the cultural makeup of the seats and are well positioned to outrun the partisan lean of their districts. House Democrats have added more than a dozen candidates to their Red to Blue list in the last two months, which comes with organizational and fundraising support.

If Democrats can successfully expand the size of their map, it could help them win the chamber with an even larger majority, which would make it easier to govern next year. The question is whether Democrats will have the right combination of candidates, strategy and money to take advantage of a rare political environment.

Republicans acknowledge they’re facing a challenging landscape, but say Democrats’ claims about the size of the map are overstated and meant to appeal to donors. Republicans have tapped into the president’s $400 million war chest and are spending to bolster Republicans in some of the seats Democrats are targeting. House Majority PAC, a House Democrats-aligned super PAC, has reduced its ad spending in some reach seats in recent days, Axios reported.

“Democrats drew a map they can’t pay for,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesman Mike Marinella said in a statement highlighting those changes. “Exactly as predicted.”

Adam Bozzi, a Democratic strategist working on House races, argued money can only do so much.

“All the money in the world can’t change the fact that people are struggling and people are suffering, and that’s the Republicans’ problem right now,” Bozzi told USA TODAY.

Smoke and mirrors or momentum

Few districts represent the tension between Democratic ambition and money as much as New York’s 21st.

Gendebien has hammered Constantino, a staunch Trump ally, over the impact the trade dispute with Canada and high diesel prices spurred by the war in Iran have had on farmers in the district.

“I get my corn and soybeans right now from Quebec. The largest egg producer in the area, they get their packaging materials from Quebec,” Gendebien said. “All this does is make business harder for farmers and other small businesses.”

Alex deGrasse, a former Stefanik staffer who is advising Constantino, knocked the Times Union/Siena poll, which included an independent write-in candidate who hasn’t reported any campaign funds. He also pointed to their cash-on-hand disparity: Gendebien’s campaign had $364,000 in cash on Oct. 14 compared to $2.3 million held by Constantino, who is self-funding his bid.

“The Democrats’ attempt to put this in play is all smoke and mirrors and fake polls,” he told USA TODAY. “It’s just a narrative to push more money from donors.”

Aidan Johnson, a spokesperson for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said the party has spent all cycle working to expand the map into red districts.

“With election day around the corner, that strategy has proved to be the right one and will ensure Democrats win the largest majority possible,” he said in a statement to USA TODAY.

Democrats have also pointed to races where GOP-aligned super PACs have shifted resources in recent weeks. The Congressional Leadership Fund, a super PAC aligned with House Republicans, pulled money targeting two Democratic incumbents in Michigan and Ohio, as well as two of their own lawmakers, Mariannette Miller-Meeks of Iowa and Tom Kean Jr. of New Jersey, The New York Times reported this month.

“These moves keep the pressure on the most vulnerable Democrats and preserve a path to 218 seats,” Chris Winkelman, the group’s president, told the Times.

A path to winning the House

Race forecasters, however, argue the question isn’t if Democrats will win back the House, but how wide their margin will be.

“Republicans’ path to keeping control of the House has all but evaporated,” Erin Covey, who leads the Cook Political Report’s House coverage, wrote in an Oct. 23 analysis shifting 19 seats in Democrats’ favor.

The latest update moved Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District, where incumbent Rep. Andy Barr is running for Senate, into the toss-up category, leaving an open seat. Trump won the district, an urban and rural seat that includes Lexington, Kentucky, by 15 points in 2024.

Democratic nominee Zach Dembo, a Navy veteran and former federal prosecutor who launched his bid for the seat in July 2025, has argued the seat is competitive because the district also reelected Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear by 20 points in his 2023 reelection bid. Beshear endorsed and campaigned with Dembo, and the governor’s PAC has spent $500,000 on ads in the race.

“The more data points we were able to show, I think it woke people up to the fact that people want an independent voice in Kentucky, and that is not what my opponent represents,” Dembo said.

The Democrat has outraised his Republican opponent, former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado. Both parties are spending millions on the race.

Tim Murtaugh, a spokesman for Alvarado, said that while Democrats “are pouring money into this district to push Zach Dembo, who is too liberal for Kentucky,” voters in the state “will reject any attempt to sell one of Joe Biden’s lawyers as some type of moderate.”

Diamonds in the rough

A key part of Democrats’ approach has been finding convincing messengers in districts where the general Democratic Party brand is unpopular.

Blue Dog PAC, which supports the party’s centrist wing, recently announced seven new endorsements. Phil Gardner, a senior adviser to Blue Dog Action, said the seats were “diamonds in the rough” where the Democratic nominees were running strong races.

In one of those seats, Kansas’ 2nd District, the group endorsed Army veteran Don Coover against GOP Rep. Derek Schmidt, a former state attorney general who lost a 2022 governor’s race to Democrat Laura Kelly. Trump won the seat by nearly 20 points in 2024, but Coover has been competitive in fundraising – he raised $1.4 million through Oct. 14, compared to Schmidt’s $1.8 million.

“There are a lot of places where more money could be useful here in the home stretch,” Gardner told USA TODAY. “But that’s going to be up to the collective Democratic base and donor class to decide how much they want to reach into their wallets.”

In an echo of the 2018 midterm elections, when Democrats took back the House with a field of recruits with national security experience, some candidates in late-breaking races have also leaned on their military backgrounds.

In South Carolina’s 1st District, a Charleston-area seat Democrats last won in 2018, they’ve backed Nancy Lacore, a former Navy vice admiral who was fired in 2025 by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth without explanation. The incumbent, GOP Rep. Nancy Mace, didn’t seek reelection to run for governor.

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