Nevada House race with Flippo, Benitez-Thompson could hurt Republicans -

Updated Nov. 2, 2026, 6:24 a.m. PT

The normally safe Republican seat in Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District is considered competitive.
That’s forcing Republicans to spend money defending it that could be spent elsewhere.
Lack of Republican enthusiasm could help Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson and hurt down-ballot GOP candidates like Gov. Joe Lombardo.

Northern Nevada’s U.S. House race could be the state’s most significant election in 2026 — not because of the consequences of who wins, but because it’s even competitive, forcing Republicans to spend resources that could be helping other candidates.

The seat is normally so safe that few can remember even seeing ads or mailers for candidates in previous elections. Rep. Mark Amodei, who is retiring from Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District, won his last seven elections by an average of 20 points.

President Donald Trump won the district by 14 percentage points in 2024.

But it’s close now.

The race pits Republican David Flippo against Democrat Teresa Benitez-Thompson with conservative Independent American Lynn Chapman possibly playing spoiler.

“The fact there’s some sort of chance (Benitez-Thompson) could win here is notable in and of itself,” said Jeremy Gelman, associate professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Reno.

As a newcomer to the region and in his first general election, Flippo had been largely unvetted. Major campaign issues have cropped up over financial disclosures, firings at previous jobs and missteps related to his military service.

From the moment Flippo won June’s Republican primary over establishment pick James Settelmeyer, Democrats have salivated at the prospect of flipping the seat, which they have never won. They see Trump’s disapproval ratings, a vulnerable Republican candidate and a Democratic candidate with deep roots creating a narrow path to victory.

They’ll still have to overcome Republicans outnumbering Democrats in the district by more than 70,000.

“Obviously it’s still an uphill battle for a Democrat to win that seat,” said Rebecca Gill, associate professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas. “It’s possible. I don’t know if it’s probable at this stage, but that doesn’t mean the race doesn’t matter.”

“If Republicans didn’t have to spend time, effort and money here, they could spend them somewhere else,” Gill said. “It forces difficult choices when there are more of these formerly safe seats” that Democrats could pull off upsets for with a blue wave driving turnout.

Settelmeyer is a known quantity who worked well with Democrats — something used against him in the primary. If he were in the CD2 general election, Gill said, then Republicans wouldn’t have needed to put additional resources into the race to avoid losing the seat.

Growing dissatisfaction with Trump could amplify Democratic wins across the board.

“The Iran war is so unpopular,” said Fred Lokken, political science professor at Truckee Meadows Community College. “The economy is so bad. Corruption has now emerged as one of the top three issues.

“Voters are not stupid. They’re seeing it. I think it’s going to be a pretty impressive wave” for Democrats — maybe even one that pulls Benitez-Thompson to victory.

Possible effect on Joe Lombardo’s reelection effort for Nevada governor

Gill sees a red undertow in CD2 that, rather than inspiring Republican turnout, is depressing it.

“If your people don’t come out and vote for you, then the opposition doesn’t need as many votes to beat you,” she said.

Some Republicans — such as Amodei — are not excited about Flippo for many reasons, and that could translate to not voting at all. Amodei said he voted for Chapman, who has raised no money and campaigned little.

That lack of enthusiasm would hurt all Republican candidates, perhaps most acutely Gov. Joe Lombardo, who is in a close reelection race against Democrat Aaron Ford.

“If I am Joe Lombardo, I cannot possibly be happy about this,” Gill said of Flippo at the top of the ballot. “He’s in a really difficult position because he had endorsed Settelmeyer in the primary.”

If Settelmeyer had won, he and Lombardo could’ve done joint campaign rallies together, supercharging their base.

Instead, Lombardo has not done many big events.

“He is holding his own in the governor’s race,” Gill said. “But the problem he’s going to run into, especially with folks in CD2, is not that people are going to jump ship and vote for Ford.

“The problem is that people who would’ve been his reliable voters look at the entirety of what’s happening in politics now, including races close to them like the Flippo race, and just saying, ‘Ugh, it’s a midterm so I’m not gonna have any part in this.’”

Lombardo’s biggest danger is that his supporters don’t vote.

“Are Republicans who are not happy with Flippo as a candidate going to still vote for Republicans down ballot?” Gelman asked. “Are they going to stay home? What’s that dynamic going to be? I think that’s one part of” Republican candidates having a tough time in multiple Nevada races.

Little polling has been done in Nevada, but election forecaster Nate Silver shows Democratic candidates in Nevada’s three other House races with a more than 94% chance of winning while Sabato’s Crystal Ball favors Democrats in state races for attorney general and secretary of state.

Republicans used to have a reliable base who voted in every election, including midterms between presidential races — much more than Democrats, Gill said. But that’s changed.

“A lot of people in the Trump coalition will show up and vote for Trump,” she said. “And if Trump is not literally on the ballot, then they don’t really see a reason to come out.”

Victory for Benitez-Thompson?

Working in Benitez-Thompson’s favor are her deep roots in Northern Nevada and increasing negative revelations about Flippo.

“Her record as a state legislator — the fact that she’s from here and lived here for most of her life — that hasn’t changed” since the June primary, Gelman said. “But obviously Flippo’s candidate defects have increased and become an increasing drag on his campaign.”

Lokken thinks Flippo very well could lose. Nevadans don’t like carpetbaggers who move into an area simply to win a seat, he said.

He gave examples of Adam Laxalt and Sam Brown.

Laxalt was born in Reno but grew up around Washington, D.C. He moved back to Nevada not long before being elected attorney general in 2014. He then lost races for governor in 2018 and U.S. Senate in 2022.

After losing an election in Texas, the Arkansas-born Brown moved to Nevada and lost general election races for U.S. Senate in 2022 and 2024.

After dropping a 2026 bid for Nevada’s 4th Congressional District seat, Flippo says, he specifically moved from Las Vegas to run up north after Amodei announced his retirement.

“It definitely might wind up with Flippo (winning), but I think that we’re talking about the defeat of Flippo and the election of Benitez-Thompson,” Lokken said.

The math is against her, he said, so her victory will require a lot of Republicans staying home.

“We are getting all kinds of indication of very significant decline in voter enthusiasm in the Republican Party,” Lokken said. “The MAGA mojo is gone. All those ranchers are getting killed with fuel prices, and tariffs have destroyed their trade connections.”

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