As the Florida Panhandle braces for the possible effects of Tropical Storm Isaias, South Florida will experience unrelated showers and storms.
On Oct. 5, the National Weather Service Forecast Office Miami-South Florida said that “regardless of the development” of the system in the gulf, the region would see “higher rain chances” over the next few days due to the “arrival and stall of an unassociated frontal boundary” to the north in Central Florida. At the time, the NWS Miami-South Florida said it was too “early to tell what, if any, impacts this system could have on South Florida.”
“Heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns” could increase as a result of the frontal boundary, and “higher tidal levels,” beginning “during the second half of the week into the upcoming weekend,” could cause minor coastal flooding, according to the NWS Miami-South Florida.
Today, “scattered to numerous showers and storms” will develop, particularly in the afternoon and evening, according to the NWS Miami-South Florida. The combination of slow-moving storms and heavy downpours with “high rainfall rates” could provoke flooding “across the Lake Okeechobee region and east coast metro areas.”
Additionally, according to the South Florida Water Management District, “high tides may exceed one or more” of the NWS thresholds along the east coast of South Florida from Oct. 5 through Oct. 15, although peaks vary by location.
Where is Tropical Storm Isaias, and where is it going?
Tropical Depression Nine strengthened as expected into Tropical Storm Isaias on Oct. 7. It’s expected to become a hurricane Thursday, Oct. 8, before making landfall somewhere on the Gulf Coast toward the end of the week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
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Gov. Ron DeSantis Oct. 6 declared a state of emergency in 25 North Florida counties, from Escambia to Baker, as the system could threaten parts of the Gulf Coast later this week.
Residents from Louisiana to Florida’s Panhandle were advised to monitor the storm closely, ensuring they’re prepared.
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm could travel outside the cone. In 2026, the Hurricane Center is experimenting with a new cone to include 90% of forecast track possibilities instead of the previous 67% forecast error.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Isaias
Special note about spaghetti models: Spaghetti model illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
What impacts could Tropical Storm Isaias have on Florida?
The National Weather Service Mobile posted on social media, saying that the western Panhandle could see heavy rainfall that leads to flash flooding, as well as high winds, high surf and rip currents due to the storm. The rain, coming so soon after heavy rain over the weekend, could “quickly become problematic” for coastal communities.
Tornadoes and storm surge are also possible, the National Weather Service Tallahassee posted on social media, though “it’s still early for specifics.”
The system will bring areas of heavy rainfall to the central U.S. Gulf coast Friday, Oct. 9, into the weekend, the National Hurricane Center said.
Will Tropical Storm Isaias affect South Florida?
Currently, the storm appears most likely to affect Florida’s Panhandle, and is not pathing towards South Florida.
On Oct. 5, the National Weather Service Forecast Office Miami-South Florida said that “regardless of the development” of the system in the gulf, the area would see “higher rain chances” over the next few days due to the “arrival and stall of an unassociated frontal boundary” to the north in Central Florida. At the time, the NWS said it was too “early to tell what, if any, impacts this system could have on South Florida.”
Florida weather radar
Sarah Perkel is a South Florida Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network’s Florida Connect team. You can get all of Florida’s best content directly in your inbox each weekday day by signing up for the free newsletter, Florida TODAY.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: South Florida to see more rain as Isaias threatens Panhandle
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