Today's US Open tennis match betting tips: Friday September 4

The third round of the US Open begins on Friday – Andy Schooler previews the action in New York.

Alex Michelsen v Daniel Merida

I hope some of you backed Merida the other day when I mentioned he had a strong chance of beating Andrey Rublev.

I bottled out – regrets, I’ve had a few.

But we now have another chance to get with the rising Spanish star.

I’m surprised to see him at 7/5 for this one as he looks to continue what has been an impressive run.

After winning his maiden ATP title in Umag (I can’t resist reminding readers at this point that he was a 40/1 tip on these pages), Merida has taken his fine form onto the hardcourts and beaten four top-50 players.

One of those was his opponent in this match – Michelsen defeated 6-4 6-7 6-1 in Montreal, where Merida made the last eight.

Given that was just a few weeks ago, it has to be significant heading into this rematch.

I suspect Michelsen is largely being priced up this short as a result of his upset of Brandon Nakashima in the previous round.

I don’t think many saw that coming with Nakashima’s recent form having been very good.

However, when Nakashima’s serve isn’t firing, it does tend to affect the rest of his game and Michelsen certainly found the keys to unpicking that particular lock.

This will likely be a much different test though with Merida having been very solid from the baseline and also capable of some blistering winners. He’s a good mover and won’t be easy to get the ball past either.

Merida’s confidence will have received another boost with his victory over the seeded Rublev.

He’s now a bigger price than he was ahead of that match and I’m not sure why against the lower-ranked Michelsen.

Back the underdog at 7/5.

Jiri Lehecka v Stefanos Tsitsipas

I’m a fan of Lehecka – when’s he’s at the top of his game, the Czech is a tough nut to crack.

Yet that doesn’t happen as often as he’d like.

He went just 3-3 in the warm-up tournaments and while he’s reached this stage without much fuss, I don’t see wins over veteran Pablo Carreno Busta and qualifier Toby Samuel really meaning a lot.

The level looks certain to rise here with Tsitsipas showing signs that he’s ready to fight his way back up the rankings.

The former world number three won his first ATP title in almost 18 months in Gstaad in July and while he didn’t pull up any trees in the hardcourt swing either, he has impressed so far at Flushing Meadows.

Arthur Fils, considered a title contender by many at the start of the tournament, was dispatched in four sets in round one, while the always-awkward challenge of the big-serving Lloyd Harris was also dismissed in four.

In both matches, Tsitsipas was good on return, breaking five times in each contest and I think he’ll be well up for this challenge.

The head-to-head stands at 2-2 and I just think the Greek has a better chance than odds of 15/8 suggest.

Posted 20:35 BST on 04/09/2026