Hello! Welcome back to our daily briefing on the US midterms.
The polls are now open and we’re expecting results to start rolling in later today. In the meantime, let’s get you up to speed with what’s happened overnight.
Click here to see how popular Trump is today, and click here for a quick breakdown on what the midterms are all about.
Here’s what you need to know today
- Surprise announcement: US President Donald Trump announced he had made a deal with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that Washington would stop $US4 billion ($5.7 billion) in annual funding to Israel after this year. He said the move was partly meant to take away a “bad talking point” used by left-wing Democrats over US support for Israel. He did not provide details or explain how the funding would be stopped, given that the Memorandum of Understanding that provides $3.8 billion in US military aid to Israel each year does not expire until September 2028.
- Court steps in: In the hours before polls opened, a federal appeals court restricted the Trump administration’s unprecedented efforts to pressure state election officials over alleged non-citizen voting. It comes after the US Supreme Court this week rejected an emergency request by the administration to intervene in a case where it sought to block California from counting tens of thousands of ballots.
- Election monitors: The US Department of Justice said it was deploying 1,000 election observers to all 50 states in what it said was the largest election day monitoring effort in history. Department officials said areas with a history of voter access issues and places with competitive races that could be targets of voter intimidation were prioritised. The Democracy Docket, which is run by Democratic elections attorney Marc Elias, said the published list of locations showed observers would be “concentrated in Democratic strongholds and minority communities”. “The DOJ has sent election monitors to polling places with a pattern of voter suppression since the passage of the 1965 Voting Rights Act, but this is the first time the department has deployed monitors in all 50 states,” Natalie Note wrote for the site.
What are we watching today?
There are going to be a lot of numbers to keep track of when the counts begin. So what exactly should you focus on? I messaged Americas editor John Lyons for his tips.
The polls are officially open across the country. Which races will you be watching closely tonight?
In terms of the seats, two high-profile races will be fascinating. Texas has of course long been a Republican stronghold, which is why Democrat James Talarico’s challenge is creating so much interest. The Democrats have not won a Senate seat in Texas since 1988. The polls predicting a Talarico win could, of course, all be wrong. But based on recent polls from a range of media companies, Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian and former school teacher, has a strong chance of flipping the seat by defeating Republican Ken Paxton.
The other seat to watch is of course Michigan, where Abdul El-Sayed has gained much attention. Trump has directly targeted the fact that El-Sayed is a Muslim, saying that if he’s elected El-Sayed would be the only US senator who needs to go through a metal detector as he enters the Senate. While this sort of Islamophobia has appealed to some of the MAGA base, others have been appalled by it.
Kansas is also in play. The Democrats have not won a Senate seat in Kansas for 94 years. The fact that they have any chance of winning it is extraordinary. The last time they won, in 1932, Herbert Hoover was president, Prohibition was in place in the US and the Great Depression was happening. That shows the depth of the political problems facing Trump.
As to key words to listen for, if Trump over the next 48 hours alleges that “there has been massive fraud” or “widespread cheating”… if Trump claims that, then he may look at various options to challenge the election. That is something many people in Washington are nervous about, as it could lead to instability.
Election forecasters have been tipping a blue wave will see the Democrats regain control of both the House and the Senate. But should we count the Republicans out just yet?
Of course the polls can be wrong. We’ve seen that many times in Australia, the US and other countries. Many people don’t decide who they’re going to vote for until they walk into a polling booth. And polling is imperfect — it cannot pick up every trend or differences within a household. So yes, the polls can be wrong. One of the interesting things though about the recent polls in the US is that polls from a range of organisations have been pointing to the same thing — for the Democrats to take the House of Representatives from the Republicans and possibly to take the Senate as well.
We will know the reality soon.
You can watch John break down more of the day’s key races here.
How popular is Donald Trump today?
US President Donald Trump might not be up for election at the midterms, but his popularity will have a strong influence over the outcome.
Trump’s approval rating sits at 38.3 per cent, with a disapproval rating of 58.8 per cent, according to a poll averaging model by the Silver Bulletin.
The president’s party almost always loses House seats in midterm elections and that trend gets steeper when the president is unpopular.
Historic polling data collated by analytics firm Gallup shows presidents with approval ratings below 50 per cent have seen their party lose an average of 37 House seats.
Presidents with approval ratings above 50 per cent have netted smaller losses, with an average of 14 seats.
Your crash course on the midterms
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And here’s how to stay up to date
You can keep track of the latest out of the US here.
Thanks for joining me! I’ll be back same time tomorrow with our last edition of the midterms briefing.
ABC/Reuters
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