The U.S. Senate race in Maine could be pivotal in determining which party will have control after the midterm elections, and polls show it could go either way.
Incumbent Republican Sen. Susan Collins is running for a sixth term against Democrat Troy Jackson, former state Senate president and logger. The two faced off in their first of four debates on Oct. 6, where they traded jabs over who was at fault for high energy prices, Collins’ relationship with President Donald Trump and the Republican party, and who will deliver for Mainers if elected to office.
The race is considered a toss-up by Cook Political Report, and Collins is a target for Dems hoping to flip a seat as she is the only Republican senator running for reelection in a state that Trump lost in 2024.
Here is a look at the latest polls on the race ahead of their second debate on Oct. 8.
More: Not ‘his favorite senator’: Susan Collins says Trump not coming to Maine
Polls show Jackson and Collins neck and neck
Marist Poll – Jackson holds narrow edge
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Jackson had 51% support compared to 47% supporting Collins in the Marist Poll released Oct. 6. Among independents, 52% supported Jackson, and 45% supported Collins. In a question about a generic ballot, Democrats had a nine-point lead in the state at 54% compared to 45% for Republicans.
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The poll was conducted Oct. 1-4 among 1,505 Maine registered voters, with a margin of error of 3.8 percentage points.
CBS News/YouGov – Tied race
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Jackson and Collins were tied at 50% each in a CBS News/YouGov poll. The poll also found that one in five voters who disapprove of Trump still would vote for Collins in the race.
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The poll was conducted Sept. 23-Oct. 1 among 1,144 registered voters in Maine and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
New York Times/Siena University Poll – Collins held narrow edge
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In the worst public poll for Jackson since he entered the race in July, the NYT/Siena poll found 49% were likely to vote for Collins compared to 46% for Jackson.
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The poll also found 12% of voters said they preferred Democrats to control the Senate but also said they planned to support Collins.
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The poll was conducted Sept. 15-22 among about 600 voters in Maine, with a margin of error of about five percentage points.
Democrats running a short campaign after nominee dropped out
The Senate race in Maine has already been eventful leading up to the candidates taking the debate stage this week.
Jackson joined the Senate race in July as a replacement for oyster farmer Graham Platner, who had garnered national attention as a progressive, mobilizing force. But after winning the primary, he was accused of sexual assault and withdrew from the race, though he denies the allegations. Jackson previously lost the Democratic primary in Maine’s gubernatorial race.
Chair of the Appropriations Committee, Collins often touts her history of bringing investments back into the state and has gained a reputation as a more bipartisan Republican. Her own campaign has been fighting back against allegations of being involved in a pay-to-play scheme brought forward by ProPublica in September, which she has vehemently denied.
While the state’s population leans Democratic, Maine’s rural 2nd Congressional District has voted for Trump all three times, awarding him one out of the state’s four total Electoral College votes (Maine is one of two states that splits its votes). Still, Collins beat her Democratic challenger readily in 2020 despite polls showing her behind during the campaign and former President Joe Biden winning the popular vote in the state. The state is also known for its independent political spirit: Sen. Angus King, an independent, also represents Maine in Washington and caucuses with the Democrats.
Kinsey Crowley is the Trump Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network. Reach her at KCrowley@usatodayco.com. Follow her on X (Twitter), Threads, Bluesky and TikTok.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Maine Senate race polls show close race as Collins, Jackson debate
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