Key Takeaways
- AST SpaceMobile fell 15% today as an AI and chip sell-off hit space stocks.
- It came the morning AST announced a U.S. Space Force contract, so it reflects the market more than the business.
- With small revenue and heavy cash burn, AST falls hard when investors pull back from risk.
- AT&T, AST’s lead U.S. carrier partner, needs its satellites in orbit, and the Nov. 9 report will test AST’s launch plans.
AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) fell 15% today, on the same morning it announced a U.S. Space Force contract.
A sell-off in AI and chip stocks sent the Nasdaq-100’s QQQ down 6% on fears for the US data-center buildout after Democrats swept Congress on Tuesday.
AST’s slide also reaches AT&T (T), its lead U.S. carrier partner.
Good news, bad day
AST will support prime contractor STR on more space-based sensing work, but gave no dollar figure. And investors price AST on sales that are years away. Analysts expect revenue to climb from $70.9 million in 2025 to $1.73 billion in 2028:
Nothing in today’s news gives them a reason to cut those numbers.
Cheaper, but the burn is real
AST traded at 35x forward sales at the last close, well below its five-year average of 60x:
At today’s price, it’s lower still. But analysts expect free cash flow of -$1.96 billion in 2026, against the more than $3.7 billion of pro forma cash AST had at June 30. That cushion lasts only if launches keep pace.
TIKR tracks 13 analysts on AST SpaceMobile. How many say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on AST SpaceMobile, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See AST SpaceMobile’s Analyst Ratings
Rocket Lab didn’t escape either
Rocket Lab (RKLB) fell 12% with no news of its own. Its second-quarter revenue rose 62% from a year earlier to $234.1 million, but Neutron’s first launch slipped into 2027 on Oct. 14. Both companies report after the close on Nov. 9. Can a Neutron date set Rocket Lab apart?
AT&T has a stake in the schedule
AT&T’s core business is steady: postpaid phone churn held at 0.92% in the third quarter. The Washington Post reported this week that SpaceX is in talks to buy EchoStar’s Boost Mobile, and that AT&T, which leases capacity to Boost, may need to approve any transfer of those leases. Will AST’s report give AT&T launch dates to sell against Starlink?
What’s next for AST
Until AST launches on schedule, I’d expect it to trade on investors’ appetite for risk.
AST has 12 BlueBirds in orbit and wants about 45 by early 2027. Firm launch dates on Nov. 9 would give the stock its own story again.
So what is AST SpaceMobile stock actually worth?
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Disclaimer:
Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!
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